Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is there a Causal Link?
AbstractDoes an expansion of the population size expose nation states to a higher risk of suffering from civil conflict? Obtaining empirical evidence for a causal relationship is difficult due to reverse effects and omitted variable bias. This article addresses causality issues by using randomly occurring drought as an instrumental variable to generate exogenous variation in population size for a panel of 37 Sub-Saharan countries over the period 1981-2004. Instrumental variable estimates yield that a 5% increase in population size raises the risk of civil conflict by around six percentage points. Copyright � The Author(s). Journal compilation � Royal Economic Society 2010.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 120 (2010)
Issue (Month): 544 (05)
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Other versions of this item:
- Markus Bruckner, 2009. "Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is There A Causal Link?," Working Papers in Economics 211, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
- Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
- P0 - Economic Systems - - General
- O55 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
- O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
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