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Effects of Transitory Shocks to Aggregate Output on Consumption in Poor Countries

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  • Gradstein, Mark
  • Brückner, Markus

Abstract

This paper provides instrumental variables estimates of the response of aggregate private consumption to transitory output shocks in poor countries. To identify exogenous, unanticipated, idiosyncratic and transitory variations in national output we use year-to-year variations in rainfall as an instrumental variable in a panel of 39 sub-Saharan African countries during the period 1980-2009. Our estimates yield a marginal propensity to consume out of transitory output of around 0.2. To explain this result we show, using instrumental variables techniques, that there is a significant negative effect of transitory output shocks on net current transfers and a significant positive and quantitatively large effect on the trade balance. An important implication is that frictions to private financial flows do not necessarily imply large effects of transitory shocks to aggregate output on private consumption in poor countries.

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  • Gradstein, Mark & Brückner, Markus, 2013. "Effects of Transitory Shocks to Aggregate Output on Consumption in Poor Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9658
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    Cited by:

    1. Carter, Patrick, 2017. "Aid econometrics: Lessons from a stochastic growth model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-232.
    2. Markus Brueckner & Wojtek Paczos & Evi Pappa, 2020. "On the Relationship between Domestic Saving and the Current Account: Evidence and Theory for Developing Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 1071-1106, August.
    3. Fuchs-Schündeln, N. & Hassan, T.A., 2016. "Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 923-1012, Elsevier.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; International capital flows; Net current transfers; Permanent income hypothesis; Risk sharing; Transitory output shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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