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Growth, Democracy, and Civil War

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Author Info
Brückner, Markus
Ciccone, Antonio

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Abstract

Are civil wars partly caused by low economic growth? And do democratic institutions attenuate the impact of low growth on the likelihood of civil war? Our approach to answering these questions exploits that international commodity prices have a significant effect on income growth in Sub-Saharan African countries. We show that lower income growth makes civil war more likely in non-democracies. This effect is significantly weaker in democracies. So much so, that we do not find a link between growth and civil war in countries with democratic institutions. Our results therefore point to an interaction between economic and institutional causes of civil war.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6568.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6568

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Keywords: civil war Commodity prices growth rainfall

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O0 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - General
P0 - Economic Systems - - General
Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Working Papers 834, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
  3. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-73, October.
  4. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-50, November.
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  5. Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2005. "Does democracy preempt civil wars?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 445-465, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," Development and Comp Systems 0409007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. William Easterly, 2006. "Development, Democracy, and Mass Killings," Working Papers 93, Center for Global Development. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  9. Jose G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2007. "Fighting against Malaria: Prevent Wars while Waiting for the "Miraculous" Vaccine," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 165-177, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. repec:fth:prinin:455 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Nicholas Sambanis, 2002. "A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 215-243, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman, 2003. "Weak Instruments: Diagnosis and Cures in Empirical Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 118-125, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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