Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan:
AbstractWeather shocks and natural disasters, it has been argued, represent a major threat to national and international security. Our paper contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflict by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan at different geographical and time scales between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict. In the future the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 21 to 30 percent under a median scenario, taking into account uncertainties in both the climate projection and the estimate of the response of violence to temperature variations. Extreme temperature shocks are found to strongly affect the likelihood of violence as well, but the predictive power is hindered by substantial uncertainty. Our paper also sheds light on the vulnerability of areas with particular biophysical characteristics or with vulnerable populations.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 1276.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Weather; Shocks; Conflict; Vulnerability;
Other versions of this item:
- Margherita Calderone & Jean-Francois Maystadt & Liangzhi You, 2013. "Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan," HiCN Working Papers 149, Households in Conflict Network.
- Calderone, Margherita & Maystadt, Jean-Francois & You, Liangzhi, 2013. "Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/403654, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- NEP-AFR-2013-08-16 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2013-08-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2013-08-16 (Development)
- NEP-ENV-2013-08-16 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-SPO-2013-08-16 (Sports & Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Antonio Ciccone, 2008.
"Economic shocks and civil conflict: A comment,"
Economics Working Papers
1127, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2011.
- Nathan Nunn, 2007.
"The Long-Term Effects of Africa's Slave Trades,"
NBER Working Papers
13367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dillon, Andrew & Mueller, Valerie & Salau, Sheu, 2010.
"Migratory responses to agricultural risk in Northern Nigeria,"
IFPRI discussion papers
1007, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Andrew Dillon & Valerie Mueller & Sheu Salau, 2011. "Migratory Responses to Agricultural Risk in Northern Nigeria," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1048-1061.
- You, Liangzhi & Ringler, Claudia & Wood-Sichra, Ulrike & Robertson, Richard & Wood, Stanley & Zhu, Tingju & Nelson, Gerald & Guo, Zhe & Sun, Yan, 2011. "What is the irrigation potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 770-782.
- William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002.
"Tropics, Germs, and Crops: How Endowments Influence Economic Development,"
NBER Working Papers
9106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 2003. "Tropics, germs, and crops: how endowments influence economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 3-39, January.
- William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "Tropics, Germs, and Crops: How Endowments Influence Economic Development," Working Papers 15, Center for Global Development.
- Kudamatsu, Masayuki & Persson, Torsten & Strömberg, David, 2012. "Weather and Infant Mortality in Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 9222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nils Petter Gleditsch, 2012. "Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 3-9, January.
- Clionadh Raleigh & Dominic Kniveton, 2012. "Come rain or shine: An analysis of conflict and climate variability in East Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 51-64, January.
- Rodrik, Dani & Subramanian, Arvind & Trebbi, Francesco, 2002.
"Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, 06.
- Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 9305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mariaflavia Harari & Eliana La Ferrara, 2012.
"Conflict, Climate and Cells: A disaggregated analysis,"
461, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Harari, Mariaflavia & La Ferrara, Eliana, 2013. "Conflict, Climate and Cells: A Disaggregated Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Markus Bruckner, 2009.
"Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is There A Causal Link?,"
Working Papers in Economics
211, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
- Markus Brückner, 2010. "Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is there a Causal Link?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 535-550, 05.
- Jean-Francois Maystadt & Olivier Ecker & Athur Mabiso, 2013.
"Extreme Weather and Civil War in Somalia: Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price Shocks?,"
LICOS Discussion Papers
32613, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
- Maystadt, Jean-Francois & Ecker, Olivier & Mabiso, Athur, 2013. "Extreme weather and civil war in Somalia: Does drought fuel conflict through livestock price shocks?," IFPRI discussion papers 1243, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Ole Magnus Theisen, 2012. "Climate clashes? Weather variability, land pressure, and organized violence in Kenya, 1989–2004," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 81-96, January.
- Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
- William Greene, 2004. "Fixed Effects and Bias Due to the Incidental Parameters Problem in the Tobit Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 125-147.
- Salvador Barrios & Luisito Bertinelli & Eric Strobl, 2010. "Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 350-366, May.
- Lybbert, Travis J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Desta, Solomon & Coppock, D. Layne, 2002.
"Stochastic Wealth Dynamics And Risk Management Among A Poor Population,"
14736, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
- Travis J. Lybbert & Christopher B. Barrett & Solomon Desta & D. Layne Coppock, 2004. "Stochastic wealth dynamics and risk management among a poor population," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 750-777, October.
- Clionadh Raleigh & Andrew Linke & Haringvard Hegre & Joakim Karlsen, 2010. "Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(5), pages 651-660, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.