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Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict

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Author Info
Antonio Ciccone ()

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Abstract

I examine whether civil conflict is triggered by transitory negative economic shocks. My approach follows Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) in using rainfall as an exogenous source of economic shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. The main difference is that my empirical specifications take into account that rainfall shocks are transitory. Failure to do so may, for example, lead to the conclusion that civil conflict is more likely to break out following negative rainfall shocks when conflict is most probable following years with exceptionally high rainfall levels.

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File URL: http://www.econ.upf.edu/docs/papers/downloads/1127.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1127.

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Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision: Nov 2008
Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1127

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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

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Related research
Keywords: Transitory shocks; mean reversion; rainfall; conflict;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O0 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - General
P0 - Economic Systems - - General
Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Working Papers 834, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-73, October.
  3. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," Development and Comp Systems 0409007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
  5. repec:fth:prinin:455 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Markus Bruckner, 2009. "Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is There A Causal Link?," Working Papers in Economics 211, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

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