Economic shocks and civil conflict: A comment
AbstractMiguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t-1 and t-2. I argue that this finding is driven by a positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t-2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, one might have expected MSS’s finding to reflect a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t-1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1127.
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision: Feb 2011
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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/
Transitory shocks; mean reversion; rainfall; civil conflict.;
Other versions of this item:
- O0 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - General
- P0 - Economic Systems - - General
- Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2008-12-01 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2008-12-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2008-12-01 (Development)
- NEP-POL-2008-12-01 (Positive Political Economics)
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