I examine whether civil conflict is triggered by transitory negative economic shocks. My approach follows Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) in using rainfall as an exogenous source of economic shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. The main difference is that my empirical specifications take into account that rainfall shocks are transitory. Failure to do so may lead to the conclusion that civil conflict is more likely to break out following droughts when the opposite is true.
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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number
7081.
Find related papers by JEL classification: O0 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - General P0 - Economic Systems - - General Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
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