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Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict

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  • Ciccone, Antonio

Abstract

I examine whether civil conflict is triggered by transitory negative economic shocks. My approach follows Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) in using rainfall as an exogenous source of economic shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. The main difference is that my empirical specifications take into account that rainfall shocks are transitory. Failure to do so may lead to the conclusion that civil conflict is more likely to break out following droughts when the opposite is true.

Suggested Citation

  • Ciccone, Antonio, 2008. "Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict," CEPR Discussion Papers 7081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7081
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2002. "On the Incidence of Civil War in Africa," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 13-28, February.
    2. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 69-85, Fall.
    3. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-573, October.
    4. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    5. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2003. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 75-90, February.
    6. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Working Papers 834, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    7. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Franklin Allen and Giorgia Giovannetti, 2010. "Fragile Countries And The 2008-2009 Crisis," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 13, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    2. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone & Andrea Tesei, 2012. "Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 389-399, May.
    3. Mark Musumba & Naureen Fatema & Shahriar Kibriya, 2021. "Prevention Is Better Than Cure: Machine Learning Approach to Conflict Prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Thierry Verdier, 2010. "Regional Integration, Fragility and Institution Building: An Analytical Framework Applied to the African Context," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 38, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    5. Verdier, Thierry, 2010. "Ouverture, conflits et capacité étatique : une perspective d’économie politique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 86(4), pages 415-449, décembre.
    6. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 519-534, May.
    7. Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodities Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 1008, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    8. José García-Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and Terrorism: The Long Lasting Effect of Seismic Shocks," Working Papers 1020, Barcelona School of Economics.
    9. Sylvain Chassang & Gerard Padró I Miquel, 2010. "Conflict and Deterrence Under Strategic Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1821-1858.
    10. Horatiu A. Rus, 2012. "Environmental Depletion, Governance, and Conflict," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(4), pages 1305-1332, April.
    11. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and terrorism: the long lasting effect of seismic shocks," Economics Working Papers 1599, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    12. Sonia Bhalotra & Marcela Umaña-Aponte, 2010. "The Dynamics of Women’s Labour Supply in Developing Countries," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 10/235, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol, UK.
    13. Pierre-Emmanuel Darpeix, 2019. "Literature review on the consequences of food price spikes and price volatility," PSE Working Papers hal-02072329, HAL.
    14. Pierre-Emmanuel Darpeix, 2019. "Literature review on the consequences of food price spikes and price volatility," Working Papers hal-02072329, HAL.
    15. Gautam Bose & Mitchell Choi & Hasin Yousaf, 2021. "Culture, Economic Shocks and Conflict: Does trust moderate the effect of price shocks on conflict?," Discussion Papers 2021-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mean reversion; Rainfall; Transitory shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O0 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - General
    • P0 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General

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