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Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict

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  • Ciccone, Antonio

Abstract

I examine whether civil conflict is triggered by transitory negative economic shocks. My approach follows Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) in using rainfall as an exogenous source of economic shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. The main difference is that my empirical specifications take into account that rainfall shocks are transitory. Failure to do so may lead to the conclusion that civil conflict is more likely to break out following droughts when the opposite is true.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7081.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7081

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Keywords: Mean reversion; Rainfall; Transitory Shocks;

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References

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  1. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
  2. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Working Papers 834, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  3. repec:fth:prinin:455 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," Development and Comp Systems 0409007, EconWPA.
  5. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-73, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Marcus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone & Andrea Tesei, 2011. "Oil price shocks, income and democracy," Economics Working Papers 1351, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Franklin Allen and Giorgia Giovannetti, 2010. "Fragile Countries And The 2008-2009 Crisis," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 13, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  3. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2007. "International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Working Papers 1053, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2009.
  4. Thierry Verdier, 2010. "Regional Integration, Fragility and Institution Building: An Analytical Framework Applied to the African Context," RSCAS Working Papers 2010/38, European University Institute.
  5. Sonia Bhalotra & Marcela Umaña-Aponte, 2010. "The Dynamics of Women’s Labour Supply in Developing Countries," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 10/235, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  6. Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodities Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 1008, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

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