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Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century

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Author Info
Melissa Dell
Benjamin F. Jones
Benjamin A. Olken
Abstract

This paper uses annual variation in temperature and precipitation over the past 50 years to examine the impact of climatic changes on economic activity throughout the world. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in poor countries but have little effect in rich countries. Second, higher temperatures appear to reduce growth rates in poor countries, rather than just the level of output. Third, higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects in poor nations, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, and aggregate investment, and increasing political instability. Analysis of decade or longer climate shifts also shows substantial negative effects on growth in poor countries. Should future impacts of climate change mirror these historical effects, the negative impact on poor countries may be substantial.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14132.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14132

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bond, Steve & Leblebicioglu, Asli & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2004. "Capital Accumulation and Growth: A New Look at the Empirical Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 1174, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Michael Greenstone & Olivier Deschenes, 2006. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather," Working Papers 2006.6, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
  5. Pritchett, Lant, 1997. "Divergence, Big Time," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 3-17, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Brian Jacob & Lars Lefgren & Enrico Moretti, 2007. "The Dynamics of Criminal Behavior: Evidence from Weather Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(3). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Sanghi, Apurva, 2001. "The effect of development on the climate sensitivity of agriculture," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 85-101, February. [Downloadable!]
  8. Olivier Deschenes & Enrico Moretti, 2007. "Extreme Weather Events, Mortality and Migration," NBER Working Papers 13227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Füssel, Hans-Martin, 2009. "New results on the influence of climate on the distribution of population and economic activity," MPRA Paper 13788, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tol, Richard S. J., 2008. "The Economic Impact of Climate Change," Papers WP255, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert S. Pindyck, 2009. "Uncertain Outcomes and Climate Change Policy," NBER Working Papers 15259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Van Butsic & Ellen Hanak & Rob Valletta, 2008. "Regional variation in the potential economic effects of climate change," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Aug 22. [Downloadable!]
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