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Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century

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  • Melissa Dell
  • Benjamin F. Jones
  • Benjamin A. Olken

Abstract

This paper uses historical fluctuations in temperature within countries to identify its effects on aggregate economic outcomes. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in poor countries. Second, higher temperatures may reduce growth rates, not just the level of output. Third, higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, and political stability. These findings inform debates over climate's role in economic development and suggest the possibility of substantial negative impacts of higher temperatures on poor countries. (JEL E23, O13, Q54, Q56)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 66-95

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:4:y:2012:i:3:p:66-95

Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.4.3.66
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  1. Stephen Bond & Asli Leblebicioglu, 2004. "Capital Accumulation and Growth: A New Look at the Empirical Evidence," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-W08, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. Olivier Desch�nes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
  3. Angus Deaton & Alan Heston, 2008. "Understanding PPPs and PPP-based national accounts," Working Papers, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies. 1120, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
  4. Simon Johnson & William Larson & Chris Papageorgiou & Arvind Subramanian, 2009. "Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates," NBER Working Papers 15455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Brian Jacob & Lars Lefgren & Enrico Moretti, 2004. "The Dynamics of Criminal Behavior: Evidence from Weather Shocks," NBER Working Papers 10739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
  7. Salvador Barrios & Luisito Bertinelli & Eric Strobl, 2010. "Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 350-366, May.
  8. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 9305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  1. Quel est l'impact des catastrophes climatiques sur la croissance à long terme ?
    by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-08-12 02:19:00

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  1. > Environmental and Natural Resource Economics > Climate economics > Climate and development
  2. > Environmental and Natural Resource Economics > Climate economics
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