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Estimating the effect of transitory economic shocks on civil conflict

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This note tries to clarify some remaining issues in the debate on the effect of income shocks on civil conflict. Section 1 discusses the discrepant findings on the effect of rainfall shocks on civil conflict in Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011) and Ciccone (2011). Section 2 develops an instrumental variables approach to estimate the effect of transitory (rainfall-driven) income shocks on civil conflict and contrasts the conclusions with those of Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) and Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011). Throughout, the note uses the data of Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti to focus on the methodological issues at the core of the debate (for results using the latest data see Ciccone, 2011).

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Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1063.

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Date of creation: Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1063

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  1. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2007. "The Growth Effect of Democracy: Is It Heterogeneous and How Can It Be Estimated?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Acemoglu, Daron & Robinson, James A, 1999. "A Theory of Political Transitions," CEPR Discussion Papers 2277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2005. "Income and Democracy," NBER Working Papers 11205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2006. "Democracy and Development: The Devil in the Details," CEPR Discussion Papers 5499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Jess Benhabib & Adam Przeworski, 2006. "The political economy of redistribution under democracy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 271-290, October.
  6. Elias Papaioannou & Gregorios Siourounis, 2007. "Initial Factors Behind The Third Wave of Democratization," Working Papers 0002, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics.
  7. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A. & Yared, Pierre, 2009. "Reevaluating the modernization hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1043-1058, November.
  8. Paxson, Christina H, 1992. "Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 15-33, March.
  9. Fuller, Wayne A, 1977. "Some Properties of a Modification of the Limited Information Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(4), pages 939-53, May.
  10. Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman, 2003. "Weak Instruments: Diagnosis and Cures in Empirical Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 118-125, May.
  11. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 69-85, Fall.
  12. repec:fth:prinin:455 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
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  1. Is Rain Good For Democracy?
    by Ariel Goldring in Free Market Mojo on 2010-08-02 09:00:05
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Cited by:
  1. Papaioannou, Elias & Siourounis, Gregorios, 2008. "Economic and social factors driving the third wave of democratization," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 365-387, September.
  2. Stéphane Bonhomme & Elena Manresa, 2012. "Grouped Patterns Of Heterogeneity In Panel Data," Working Papers wp2012_1208, CEMFI.
  3. Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon & Inna Melnykovska & Rainer Schweickert, 2009. "Prospective NATO or EU Membership and Institutional Change in Transition Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 915, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Rabah Arezki & Markus Bruckner, 2011. "Food Prices and Political Instability," IMF Working Papers 11/62, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Thorsten Drautzburg & Inna Melnykovska & Rainer Schweickert, 2008. "Which Membership Matters? External vs. Internal Determinants of Institutional Change in Transition Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1421, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Danne, Christian, 2012. "Commitment devices, opportunity windows, and institution building in Central Asia," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/04, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
  7. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 923-947, 05.
  8. Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon & Inna Melnykovska & Rainer Schweickert, 2009. "Prospective Membership and Institutional Change in Transition Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1562, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  9. Caselli, Francesco & Tesei, Andrea, 2011. "Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 8662, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Qiang Chen, 2012. "Climate Shocks, Dynastic Cycles, and Nomadic Conquests: Evidence from Historical China," SDU Working Papers 2012-01, School of Economics, Shandong University.
  11. Ghazala Azmat & Marc Möller, 2012. "The Distribution of Talent across Contests," Working Papers 600, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.

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