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Estimating the effect of transitory economic shocks on civil conflict

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Abstract

This note tries to clarify some remaining issues in the debate on the effect of income shocks on civil conflict. Section 1 discusses the discrepant findings on the effect of rainfall shocks on civil conflict in Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011) and Ciccone (2011). Section 2 develops an instrumental variables approach to estimate the effect of transitory (rainfall-driven) income shocks on civil conflict and contrasts the conclusions with those of Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) and Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011). Throughout, the note uses the data of Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti to focus on the methodological issues at the core of the debate (for results using the latest data see Ciccone, 2011).

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Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1063.

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Date of creation: Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1063

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  1. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2007. "The Growth Effect of Democracy: Is It Heterogeneous and How Can It Be Estimated?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6339, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  10. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
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  13. Elias Papaioannou & Gregorios Siourounis, 2007. "Initial Factors Behind The Third Wave of Democratization," Working Papers 0002, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics.
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  1. Is Rain Good For Democracy?
    by Ariel Goldring in Free Market Mojo on 2010-08-02 09:00:05
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