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Oil Price Shocks, Protest and the Shadow Economyː Is there a Mitigation Effect?

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  • Ishak, Phoebe W.
  • Fritsche, Ulrich

Abstract

In this paper, we study the impact of exogenous variations of international oil prices on the incidence of protest, while exploring the role of the shadow economy as a mitigating factor. We find that oil price shocks are negatively associated with protests, but the effect is less severe the higher the initial size of the shadow economy. To explain these results, we show that the size of the shadow economy responds counter-cyclically to oil-price-driven income shocks. In particular, we find that the decline in the GDP per capita growth following a negative oil price shock leads to an increase in the size of the shadow economy. This suggest that the shadow economy's capacity to absorb persistent oil price fluctuations without provoking political unrest, should regard it as a mitigation tool rather than an economic burden.

Suggested Citation

  • Ishak, Phoebe W. & Fritsche, Ulrich, 2020. "Oil Price Shocks, Protest and the Shadow Economyː Is there a Mitigation Effect?," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 52, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:uhhwps:52
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    Cited by:

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    3. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Gholipour, Hassan F., 2023. "COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Duan, Wenqi & Madasi, Joseph David & Khurshid, Adnan & Ma, Dan, 2022. "Industrial structure conditions economic resilience," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    5. Musa Abdullahi Sakanko & Joseph David & Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2024. "Financial inclusion and underground economy nexus in West Africa: evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel techniques," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-20, February.
    6. Alexeev, Michael & Zakharov, Nikita, 2022. "Who profits from windfalls in oil tax revenue? Inequality, protests, and the role of corruption," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 472-492.
    7. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Reza Zamani, 2023. "Does Oil Corrupt? Evidence from a Multivariate VAR in Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202321, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Price Shocks; Protest; Shadow Economy; Income;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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