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The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy

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  • Samer Matta
  • Simon Appleton
  • Michael Bleaney

Abstract

We use Synthetic Control Methodology to estimate the output loss in Tunisia as a result of the “Arab spring”. Our results suggest that each Tunisian citizen lost, on average, an estimated US$ 600 (5.5 percent of GDP), US$ 574 (5.1 percent of GDP) and US$ 735 (6.4 percent of GDP) in 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively. These findings are robust to a series of tests. Investment was the main channel through which the economy was impacted by the Arab Spring, as investors were afraid to invest in a highly volatile political environment.

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  • Samer Matta & Simon Appleton & Michael Bleaney, 2015. "The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy," Discussion Papers 2015-09, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    • Handle: RePEc:not:notcre:15/09
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    Cited by:

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    2. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Gholipour, Hassan F., 2023. "COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Samer Matta & Michael Bleaney & Simon Appleton, 2022. "The economic impact of political instability and mass civil protest," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 253-270, March.
    4. Phoebe W. Ishak & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2022. "Oil price shocks, protest, and the shadow economy: Is there a mitigation effect?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 298-321, July.
    5. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2019. "The Opportunity Cost of the Islamic Revolution and War for Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201929, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Nizar Becheikh, 2021. "Political stability and economic growth in developing economies: lessons from Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt ten years after the Arab Spring," Post-Print hal-03583934, HAL.
    7. Rudolf, Robert & Wang, Shun & Wu, Fengyu, 2023. "The Arab Spring, a setback for gender equality? Evidence from the Gallup World Poll," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Markus Loewe & Holger Albrecht, 2023. "The social contract in Egypt, Lebanon and Tunisia: What do the people want?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 838-855, July.
    9. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Reza Zamani, 2024. "The Effect of Corruption on Internal Conflict in Iran Using Newspaper Coverage," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 24-43, January.
    10. Nabi, Mahmoud Sami, 2021. "Tunisia after the 2011’s revolution: Economic deterioration should, and could have been avoided," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 1094-1109.
    11. Idriss Fontaine & Justinien Razafindravaosolonirina, 2023. "The income loss of a political crisis: Evidence from Madagascar," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 657-681, July.
    12. Samer Matta, 2017. "The Microeconomic Impact of Political Instability: Firm-Level Evidence from Tunisia," Working Papers 1135, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jul 2017.
    13. Ahmed Sahraoui & Nguyen Khoi Tran & Youssef Tliche & Ameni Kacem & Atour Taghipour, 2023. "Examining ICT Innovation for Sustainable Terminal Operations in Developing Countries: A Case Study of the Port of Radès in Tunisia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-22, June.
    14. Mohamed Mehdi Jelassi & Ezzeddine Delhoumi, 2021. "What explains the technical efficiency of banks in Tunisia? Evidence from a two-stage data envelopment analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, December.
    15. Fatih Kırsanli, 2023. "Crony Capitalism and Corruption in the Middle East and North Africa," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 68(68), pages 9-19, December.
    16. Joseph Mawejje & Patrick McSharry, 2021. "The economic cost of conflict: Evidence from South Sudan," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1969-1990, November.
    17. Tillman Hönig, 2019. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," HiCN Working Papers 293, Households in Conflict Network.
    18. Samuel Verevis & Murat Üngör, 2021. "What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 20-50, February.
    19. Nizar Becheikh, 2021. "Political stability and economic growth in developing economies: lessons from Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt ten years after the Arab Spring," Insights into Regional Development, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 3(2), pages 229-251, June.
    20. Rahmouni, Mohieddine, 2023. "Corruption and corporate innovation in Tunisia during an economic downturn," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 314-326.
    21. Phoebe W. Ishak & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2022. "Oil price shocks, protest, and the shadow economy: Is there a mitigation effect?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 298-321, July.

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    Keywords

    Arab Spring; Tunisia; Economic Impact; Synthetic Control Methodology;
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