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The Economic Impact of Political Instability and Mass Civil Protest

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  • Samer Matta
  • Simon Appleton
  • Michael Bleaney

Abstract

Previous work has investigated whether political instability has a negative effect on economic growth, with mixed results, largely because political instability can take various forms. Using synthetic control methodology, which constructs a counterfactual in the absence of political instability, we estimate the output effect of 38 regime crises in the period 1970-2011. A crucial factor is whether crises are accompanied by mass civil protest. In the crises accompanied by mass civil protest, there is typically an immediate fall in output which is never recovered in the subsequent five years. In crises unaccompanied by protest, there are usually no significant effects.

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  • Samer Matta & Simon Appleton & Michael Bleaney, 2017. "The Economic Impact of Political Instability and Mass Civil Protest," Discussion Papers 2017-03, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    • Handle: RePEc:not:notcre:17/03
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    2. Dirks, Maximilian & Schmidt, Torsten, 2023. "The relationship between political instability and economic growth in advanced economies: Empirical evidence from a panel VAR and a dynamic panel FE-IV analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 1000, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Rabia Haroon & Zainab Jehan, 2022. "Measuring the impact of violence on macroeconomic instability: evidence from developing countries," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 21(1), pages 3-30, January.
    4. Saha, Shrabani & Sen, Kunal, 2023. "Do economic and political crises lead to corruption? The role of institutions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).

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    Keywords

    Political Instability; Economic Recovery; Synthetic Control Method.;
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