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The Democratic Window of Opportunity

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  • Toke S. Aidt
  • Gabriel Leon

Abstract

We show that drought-induced changes in the intensity of riots lead to moves toward democracy in sub-Saharan Africa and that these changes are often a result of concessions made as a result of the riots. This provides evidence that low-intensity conflict can have a substantial short-run impact on democratic change and supports the “window of opportunity†hypothesis: droughts lead to an increase in the threat of conflict, and incumbents often respond by making democratic concessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Toke S. Aidt & Gabriel Leon, 2016. "The Democratic Window of Opportunity," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 60(4), pages 694-717, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:60:y:2016:i:4:p:694-717
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002714564014
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Ciccone & Adilzhan Ismailov, 2022. "Rainfall, Agricultural Output and Persistent Democratization," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(354), pages 229-257, April.
    2. Toke Aidt & Gabriel Leon & Max Satchell, 2017. "The Social Dynamics of Collective Action: Evidence from the Captain Swing Riots, 1830-31," CESifo Working Paper Series 6773, CESifo.
    3. Leopoldo Fergusson & Carlos Molina, 2020. "Facebook Causes Protests," HiCN Working Papers 323, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. Stephen L. Parente & Luis Felipe Sáenz & Anna Seim, 2022. "Income, education and democracy," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 193-233, June.
    5. Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2020. "Economic downturns, inequality, and democratic improvements," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. World Bank, 2016. "Jordan Economic Monitor, Fall 2016," World Bank Publications - Reports 25463, The World Bank Group.
    7. Hager, Anselm & Krakowski, Krzysztof & Schaub, Max, 2019. "Ethnic Riots and Prosocial Behavior: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 113(4), pages 1029-1044.
    8. Aidt, Toke S. & Albornoz, Facundo & Gassebner, Martin, 2018. "The golden hello and political transitions," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 157-173.
    9. Lena Gerling, 2018. "Rebellious Youth: Evidence on the Link between Youth Bulges, Institutional Bottlenecks, and Conflict," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 64(4), pages 577-616.
    10. Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2018. "Rent extraction, revolutionary threat, and coups in non-democracies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1082-1103.
    11. Samer Matta & Michael Bleaney & Simon Appleton, 2022. "The economic impact of political instability and mass civil protest," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 253-270, March.
    12. Ponticelli, Jacopo & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2020. "Austerity and anarchy: Budget cuts and social unrest in Europe, 1919–2008," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 1-19.
    13. Rainer Kotschy & Uwe Sunde, 2021. "Income Shocks, Inequality, and Democracy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(1), pages 295-326, January.
    14. Gründler, Klaus & Krieger, Tommy, 2022. "Should we care (more) about data aggregation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    15. Gründler, Klaus & Krieger, Tommy, 2021. "Using Machine Learning for measuring democracy: A practitioners guide and a new updated dataset for 186 countries from 1919 to 2019," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    16. Christophe Muller & Pierre Pecher, 2018. "Transborder Ethnic Kin and Local Prosperity: Evidence from Night-Time Light Intensity in Africa," Working Papers halshs-01801170, HAL.
    17. Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada, 2020. "Distributional Bargaining and the Speed of Structural Change in the Petroleum Exporting Labor Surplus Economies," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(1), pages 51-98, January.
    18. Ticku, R. & Shrivastava, A. & Iyer, S., 2018. "Economic Shocks and Temple Desecrations in Medieval India," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1862, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    19. Klaus Gründler & Tommy Krieger, 2021. "Using Machine Learning for Measuring Democracy: An Update," CESifo Working Paper Series 8903, CESifo.
    20. Marino, Maria & Donni, Paolo Li & Bavetta, Sebastiano & Cellini, Marco, 2020. "The democratization process: An empirical appraisal of the role of political protest," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    21. Klaus Gründler & Tommy Krieger, 2019. "Should We Care (More) About Data Aggregation? Evidence from Democracy Indices," CESifo Working Paper Series 7480, CESifo.
    22. Almer, Christian & Laurent-Lucchetti, Jérémy & Oechslin, Manuel, 2017. "Water scarcity and rioting: Disaggregated evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 193-209.
    23. Liang, Weidong & Sim, Nicholas, 2019. "Did rainfall shocks cause civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa? The implications of data revisions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

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