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The Golden Hello and Political Transitions

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  • Toke S. Aidt
  • Facundo Albornoz
  • Martin Gassebner

Abstract

We analyze the influence of IMF and World Bank programs on political regime transitions. We develop an extended version of Acemoglu and Robinson’s [American Economic Review 91, 2001] model of political transitions to show how the anticipation of new loans from in-ternational financial institutions can trigger political transitions which would not otherwise have taken place. We test this unexplored implication of the theory empirically. We find in a world sample from 1970 to 2002 that the anticipation of receiving new programs immediately after a political regime transition increases the probability of a transition from autocracy to democracy and reduces the probability of democratic survival.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2012/wp-cesifo-2012-10/cesifo1_wp3957.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3957.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3957

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Keywords: political transitions; democracy; autocracy; IMF; World Bank;

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References

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  1. Aidt, Toke S. & Albornoz, Facundo, 2011. "Political regimes and foreign intervention," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 192-201, March.
  2. Axel Dreher & Martin Gassebner, 2008. "Do IMF and World Bank programs induce government crises? An empirical analysis," KOF Working papers 08-200, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  3. Congleton, Roger D., 2007. "From royal to parliamentary rule without revolution: The economics of constitutional exchange within divided governments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 261-284, June.
  4. Alberto Alesina & David Dollar, 1998. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," NBER Working Papers 6612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I just ran four million regressions," Economics Working Papers 201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  6. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
  7. Toke S. Aidt & Uk Hwang, 2008. "On the Internalization of Cross-National Externalities through Political Markets: The Case of Labour Standards," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 164(3), pages 509-533, September.
  8. Timur Kuran, 1989. "Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 41-74, April.
  9. Christopher J. Ellis & John Fender, 2011. "Information Cascades and Revolutionary Regime Transitions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(553), pages 763-792, 06.
  10. Martin Gassebner & Michael J. Lamla & James Raymond Vreeland, 2009. "Extreme Bounds of Democracy," KOF Working papers 09-224, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  11. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2000. "Why Did The West Extend The Franchise? Democracy, Inequality, And Growth In Historical Perspective," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1167-1199, November.
  12. Brückner, Markus & Ciccone, Antonio, 2008. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Silvia Marchesi & Laura Sabani, 2005. "IMF Concern for Reputation and Conditional Lending Failure: Theory and Empirics," Development Working Papers 206, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
  14. Axel Dreher & Matthew Gould & Matthew D. Rablen & James Raymond Vreeland, 2012. "The Determinants of Election to the United Nations Security Council," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 12-09, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University.
  15. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2009. "Global horse trading: IMF loans for votes in the United Nations Security Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 742-757, October.
  16. William Easterly & Shanker Satyanath & Daniel Berger, 2008. "Superpower Interventions and their Consequences for Democracy: An Empirical Inquiry," NBER Working Papers 13992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Paul J. Burke & Andrew Leigh, 2010. "Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 124-57, October.
  18. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2001. "A Theory of Political Transitions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 938-963, September.
  19. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January.
  20. Mark Gradstein, 2007. "Inequality, democracy and the protection of property rights," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 252-269, 01.
  21. Roberto Bonfatti, 2011. "An Economic Theory of Foreign Interventions and Regime Change," CESifo Working Paper Series 3475, CESifo Group Munich.
  22. Irene Vlachaki & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2011. "When does more aid imply less democracy? An empirical examination," DEOS Working Papers 1125, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  23. Roberto Bonfatti, 2011. "An Economic Theory of Foreign Interventions and Regime Change," Economics Series Working Papers 549, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Facundo Albornoz & Esther Hauk, 2010. "Civil War and Foreign Influence," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 836.10, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC), revised 19 Dec 2010.

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