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Extreme bounds of democracy

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  • Martin Gassebner
  • Michael J. Lamla
  • James Raymond Vreeland

Abstract

There are many stories of democracy but little consensus over which variables robustly determine its emergence and survival. We apply extreme bounds analysis to test the robustness of 59 factors proposed in the literature, evaluating over 3 million regressions. The most robust determinants of the transition to democracy are GDP growth (a negative effect), past transitions (a positive effect), and OECD membership (a positive effect). There is some evidence that fuel exporters and Muslim countries are less likely to see democracy emerge, although the latter finding is driven entirely by oil producing Muslim countries. Regarding the survival of democracy, the most robust determinants are GDP per capita (a positive effect) and past transitions (a negative effect). There is some evidence that having a former military leader as the chief executive has a negative effect, while having other democracies as neighbors has a reinforcing effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Gassebner & Michael J. Lamla & James Raymond Vreeland, 2009. "Extreme bounds of democracy," KOF Working papers 09-224, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:09-224
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005788389
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Democracy; Extreme bounds analysis; Regime transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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