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Extreme Bounds of Democracy

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Author Info
Martin Gassebner () (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
Michael J. Lamla () (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
James Raymond Vreeland () (Georgetown University, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service)

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Abstract

There are many stories of democracy but little consensus over which variables robustly determine its emergence and survival. We apply extreme bounds analysis to test the robustness of 59 factors proposed in the literature, evaluating over 3 million regressions. The most robust determinants of the transition to democracy are GDP growth (a negative e ect), past transitions (a positive e ect), and OECD membership (a positive e ect). There is some evidence that fuel exporters and Muslim countries are less likely to see democracy emerge, although the latter finding is driven entirely by oil producing Muslim countries. Regarding the survival of democracy, the most robust determinants are GDP per capita (a positive effect) and past transitions (a negative effect). There is some evidence that having a former military leader as the chief executive has a negative effect, while having other democracies as neighbors has a reinforcing effect.

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Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 09-224.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:09-224

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Related research
Keywords: democracy; extreme bounds analysis; regime transition;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
F59 - International Economics - - International Relations and International Political Economy - - - Other
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
P48 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Other Economic Systems: Political Economy; Legal Institutions; Property Rights

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  1. Langche Zeng & Gary King & Micahael Tomz, 2003. "ReLogit: Rare Events Logistic Regression," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(02), 01. [Downloadable!]
  2. Acemoglu, Daron & Ticchi, Davide & Vindigni, Andrea, 2008. "A theory of military dictatorships," P.O.L.I.S. department's Working Papers 100, Department of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages S158-S183, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Economic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 583-604, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede & Ward, Michael D., 2006. "Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(04), pages 911-933, October. [Downloadable!]
  6. Axel Dreher, 2006. "Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1091-1110, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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