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Extreme Bounds of Democracy

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Author Info

  • Martin Gassebner

    (ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Switzerland
    CESifo, Munich, Germany)

  • Michael J. Lamla

    (ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Switzerland)

  • James Raymond Vreeland

    ()
    (Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA)

Abstract

What determines the emergence and survival of democracy? The authors apply extreme bounds analysis to test the robustness of fifty-nine factors proposed in the literature, evaluating over three million regressions with data from 165 countries from 1976 to 2002. The most robust determinants of the transition to democracy are gross domestic product (GDP) growth (a negative effect), past transitions (a positive effect), and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development membership (a positive effect). There is some evidence that fuel exporters and Muslim countries are less likely to see democracy emerge, although the latter finding is driven entirely by oil-producing Muslim countries. Regarding the survival of democracy, the most robust determinants are GDP per capita (a positive effect) and past transitions (a negative effect). There is some evidence that having a former military leader as the chief executive has a negative effect, while having other democracies as neighbors has a reinforcing effect.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Peace Science Society (International) in its journal Journal of Conflict Resolution.

Volume (Year): 57 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 171-197

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Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:57:y:2013:i:2:p:171-197

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Web page: http://pss.la.psu.edu/

Related research

Keywords: Democracy; dictatorship; transitions; political regime;

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References

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  1. Daron Acemoglu & Davide Ticchi & Andrea Vindigni, 2008. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 74, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  2. World Bank, 2006. "World Development Indicators 2006," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 8151, October.
  3. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2008. "Income and Democracy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 808-42, June.
  5. Olsson, Ola, 2009. "On the democratic legacy of colonialism," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 534-551, December.
  6. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Harald Oberhofer & Paul Raschky, 2010. "Oil and the Duration of Dictatorships," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 10-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
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  10. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Islam and democracy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 185-192, April.
  11. Axel Dreher, 2005. "Does Globalization Affect Growth? Evidence from a new Index of Globalization," TWI Research Paper Series 6, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
  12. Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2006. "Notes on CEPII’s distances measures," MPRA Paper 26469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Micahael Tomz & Gary King & Langche Zeng, . "ReLogit: Rare Events Logistic Regression," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(i02).
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  17. Jan Fidrmuc, 2001. "Economic Reform, Democracy and Growth During Post-Communist Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 372, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Islam and democracy," Munich Reprints in Economics 19273, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  2. Toke, A.S. & Albornoz, F. & Gassebner, M., 2012. "The Golden Hello and Political Transitions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1241, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Seo-Young Cho, 2012. "Modeling for Determinants of Human Trafficking," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 70, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Friedrichsen, Jana & Zahn, Philipp, 2012. "Political Support in Hard Times: Do People Care about National Welfare?," Working Papers 12-12, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
  5. Martin Gassebner & Simon Luechinger, 2011. "Lock, stock, and barrel: a comprehensive assessment of the determinants of terror," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 235-261, December.
  6. Cooray, Arusha & Potrafke, Niklas, 2011. "Gender inequality in education: Political institutions or culture and religion?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 268-280, June.
  7. Cho, Seo-young & Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2010. "Compliance for big brothers: An empirical analysis on the impact of the anti-trafficking protocol," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 118, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  8. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Democracy and Countries with Muslim Majorities: A Reply and Update," CESifo Working Paper Series 4039, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Andersen, Jørgen Juel, 2011. "The form of government and fiscal dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 297-310, June.
  10. Andersen, Jørgen Juel & Aslaksen, Silje, 2013. "Oil and political survival," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 89-106.

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