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Do IMF and World Bank programs induce government crises An empirical analysis

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  • Dreher, Axel
  • Gassebner, Martin

Abstract

We examine whether and under which circumstances World Bank projects and IMF programs affect the likelihood of major government crises. Using a sample of more than 90 developing countries over the period 1970-2002, we find that crises are on average more likely in the presence of Bank and Fund involvement. While the effect of the IMF to some extent depends on the model specification, the impact of the World Bank is shown to be robust to the choice of control variables and method of estimation. We also find that governments face an increasing risk to enter a crisis when they remain under IFI programs when the economy performs better. The (economic) conditions present when a new IFI program is initiated, however, do not play a major role for crisis probability. Finally, only programs concluded by the current government affect crises, while those inherited by preceding governments do not. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics in its series Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 with number 13.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec08:13

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Keywords: Political Crisis; International Financial Institutions;

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Cited by:
  1. Christoph Moser & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2011. "Explaining IMF lending decisions after the Cold War," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 307-340, September.
  2. Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Martin Gassebner, 2012. "The Golden Hello and Political Transitions," CESifo Working Paper Series 3957, CESifo Group Munich.

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