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The Determinants of Election to the United Nations Security Council

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  • Axel Dreher
  • Matthew Gould
  • Matthew Rablen
  • James Raymond Vreeland

Abstract

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is the foremost international body responsible for the maintenance of international peace and security. Members vote on issues of global importance and consequently receive perks – election to the UNSC predicts, for instance, World Bank and IMF loans. But who gets elected to the UNSC? Addressing this question empirically is not straightforward as it requires a model that allows for discrete choices at the regional and international levels; the former nominates candidates while the latter ratifies them. Using an original multiple discrete choice model to analyze a dataset of 180 elections from 1970 to 2005, we find that UNSC election appears to derive from a compromise between the demands of populous countries to win election more frequently and a norm of giving each country its turn. Involvement in warfare lowers election probability, but there is little evidence that the level of economic development or foreign aid predict election.

Suggested Citation

  • Axel Dreher & Matthew Gould & Matthew Rablen & James Raymond Vreeland, 2012. "The Determinants of Election to the United Nations Security Council," CESifo Working Paper Series 3902, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3902
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    Cited by:

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    2. Aidt, Toke S. & Albornoz, Facundo & Gassebner, Martin, 2018. "The golden hello and political transitions," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 157-173.
    3. Gustavo Javier Canavire‐Bacarreza & Eric Neumayer & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2015. "Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 440-463, 05-27.
    4. Donaubauer, Julian & Meyer, Birgit & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2016. "Aid, Infrastructure, and FDI: Assessing the Transmission Channel with a New Index of Infrastructure," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 230-245.
    5. Matthew Gould & Matthew D. Rablen, 2017. "Reform of the United Nations Security Council: equity and efficiency," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 145-168, October.
    6. Matthew Gould & Matthew Rablen, 2013. "Equitable Representation in the Councils of the United Nations: Theory and Application," CESifo Working Paper Series 4519, CESifo.
    7. Axel Dreher & Vera Eichenauer & Kai Gehring & Vera Z. Eichenauer, 2013. "Geopolitics, Aid and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 4299, CESifo.
    8. Dreher, Axel & Lang, Valentin F. & Richert, Katharina, 2019. "The political economy of International Finance Corporation lending," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 242-254.
    9. Erasmus Kersting & Christopher Kilby, 2019. "The rise of supplemental lending at the World Bank," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1655-1698, November.
    10. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm & James Raymond Vreeland, 2015. "Politics and IMF Conditionality," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 59(1), pages 120-148, February.
    11. Kiran Tomlinson & Austin R. Benson, 2022. "Graph-Based Methods for Discrete Choice," Papers 2205.11365, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    12. Barthel, Fabian & Neumayer, Eric & Nunnenkamp, Peter & Selaya, Pablo, 2014. "Competition for Export Markets and the Allocation of Foreign Aid: The Role of Spatial Dependence among Donor Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 350-365.
    13. Axel Dreher & Peter Nunnenkamp & Maya Schmaljohann, 2015. "The Allocation of German Aid: Self-interest and Government Ideology," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 160-184, March.
    14. Matthew Gould & Matthew D. Rablen, 2016. "Equitable representation in councils: theory and an application to the United Nations Security Council," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 19-51, October.
    15. Maria Perrotta Berlin & Raj M. Desai & Anders Olofsgård, 2023. "Trading favors? UN Security Council membership and subnational favoritism in aid recipients," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 237-258, April.
    16. Josep Freixas, 2020. "The Banzhaf Value for Cooperative and Simple Multichoice Games," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 61-74, February.
    17. Kleemann, Linda & Nunnenkamp, Peter & Thiele, Rainer, 2014. "Gender inequality, female leadership, and aid allocation: A panel analysis of aid for education," WIDER Working Paper Series 010, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Rudolph, Alexandra, 2017. "The concept of SDG-sensitive development cooperation: implications for OECD-DAC members," IDOS Discussion Papers 1/2017, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    19. Bernhard Reinsberg, 2019. "Do countries use foreign aid to buy geopolitical influence?: Evidence from donor campaigns for temporary UN Security Council seats," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-4, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Axel Dreher & Vera Z Eichenauer & Kai Gehring, 2018. "Geopolitics, Aid, and Growth: The Impact of UN Security Council Membership on the Effectiveness of Aid," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(2), pages 268-286.
    21. Linda Kleemann & Peter Nunnenkamp & Rainer Thiele, 2014. "Gender Inequality, Female Leadership, and Aid Allocation: A Panel Analysis of Aid for Education," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-010, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    22. Brian Lai & Vanessa A. Lefler, 2017. "Examining the role of region and elections on representation in the UN Security Council," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 585-611, December.
    23. Christoph Mikulaschek, 2018. "Issue linkage across international organizations: Does European countries’ temporary membership in the UN Security Council increase their receipts from the EU budget?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 491-518, December.
    24. Erik Voeten, 2014. "Does participation in international organizations increase cooperation?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 285-308, September.
    25. Bernhard Reinsberg, 2019. "Do Countries Use Foreign Aid to Buy Geopolitical Influence? Evidence from Donor Campaigns for Temporary UN Security Council Seats," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 7(2), pages 127-154.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    United Nations; Security Council; turn-taking norm; elections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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