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The Determinants of Election to the United Nations Security Council

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  • Axel Dreher
  • Matthew Gould
  • Matthew Rablen
  • James Raymond Vreeland

Abstract

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is the foremost international body responsible for the maintenance of international peace and security. Members vote on issues of global importance and consequently receive perks – election to the UNSC predicts, for instance, World Bank and IMF loans. But who gets elected to the UNSC? Addressing this question empirically is not straightforward as it requires a model that allows for discrete choices at the regional and international levels; the former nominates candidates while the latter ratifies them. Using an original multiple discrete choice model to analyze a dataset of 180 elections from 1970 to 2005, we find that UNSC election appears to derive from a compromise between the demands of populous countries to win election more frequently and a norm of giving each country its turn. Involvement in warfare lowers election probability, but there is little evidence that the level of economic development or foreign aid predict election.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3902.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3902

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Keywords: United Nations; Security Council; turn-taking norm; elections;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Matthew Gould & Matthew D. Rablen, 2013. "Equitable Representation in the Councils of the United Nations: Theory and Application," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 13-07, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University.
  2. Aidt, Toke & Albornoz, Facundo & Gassebner, Martin, 2010. "The Golden Halo and Political Transitions," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010 48, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  3. Axel Dreher & Peter Nunnenkamp & Maya Schmaljohann, 2013. "The Allocation of German Aid: Self-interest and Government Ideology," Kiel Working Papers 1817, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Axel Dreher & Vera Eichenauer & Kai Gehring, 2013. "Geopolitics, Aid and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 4299, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Matthew Gould & Matthew D. Rablen, 2014. "Reform of the United Nations Security Council: Equity and Efficiency," CESifo Working Paper Series 4818, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Fabian Barthel & Eric Neumayer & Peter Nunnenkamp & Pablo Selaya, 2013. "Competition for Export Markets and the Allocation of Foreign Aid: The Role of Spatial Dependence among Donor Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1875, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm & James Raymond Vreeland, 2013. "Politics and IMF Conditionality," CESifo Working Paper Series 4308, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Matthew Gould & Matthew D. Rablen, 2014. "Reform of the United Nations Security Council: Equity and Efficiency," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 14-01, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University.

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