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The Revolving Door: Duration and Recidivism in IMF Programs

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  • Patrick Conway

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

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    Abstract

    Quarterly evidence on participation in IMF programs for the period 1974-2003 is examined using the techniques of hazard analysis and error-correction estimation. Three hypotheses are proposed and tested. An increase in cumulative prior participation in IMF programs is found to cause a reduction on average in the length of a new spell of participation. The length of time between participation spells is reduced significantly with an increase in prior participation in IMF programs. Reserve adequacy is shown to be significantly and positively affected by participation in IMF programs. The results support a "revolving door" explanation of participation in IMF programs. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 89 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 2 (May)
    Pages: 205-220

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    Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:89:y:2007:i:2:p:205-220

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    Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535

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    Cited by:
    1. Axel Dreher & Matthew Gould & Matthew Rablen & James Raymond Vreeland, 2012. "The Determinants of Election to the United Nations Security Council," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo Group Munich 3902, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Howard Stein, 2009. "A Brief History of Aid in East Africa: The Political Economy of Convergence," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(4), pages 13-22, 01.
    3. Fabian Fink & Almuth Scholl, 2011. "A Quantitative Model of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and Conditionality," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-46, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    4. Axel Dreher & Stefanie Walter, 2008. "Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF programs on the likelihood and outcome of currency crises," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich 08-186, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    5. Presbitero, Andrea F. & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2012. "IMF Lending in Times of Crisis: Political Influences and Crisis Prevention," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1944-1969.
    6. Christoph Moser & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2011. "Explaining IMF Lending Decisions after the Cold War," KOF Working papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich 11-279, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    7. Breen, Michael & Gillanders, Robert, 2013. "Political Trust, Corruption and Ratings of the IMF and the World Bank," MPRA Paper 51535, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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