IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/poleco/v70y2021ics017626802100046x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using Machine Learning for measuring democracy: A practitioners guide and a new updated dataset for 186 countries from 1919 to 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Gründler, Klaus
  • Krieger, Tommy

Abstract

We provide a comprehensive overview of the literature on the measurement of democracy and present an extensive update of the Machine Learning indicator of Gründler and Krieger (2016). Four improvements are particularly notable: First, we produce a continuous and a dichotomous version of the Machine Learning democracy indicator. Second, we calculate intervals that reflect the degree of measurement uncertainty. Third, we refine the conceptualization of the Machine Learning Index. Finally, we significantly expand the data coverage by providing democracy indices for 186 countries in the period from 1919 to 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Gründler, Klaus & Krieger, Tommy, 2021. "Using Machine Learning for measuring democracy: A practitioners guide and a new updated dataset for 186 countries from 1919 to 2019," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:70:y:2021:i:c:s017626802100046x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102047
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S017626802100046X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102047?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anna Lührmann & Marcus Tannenberg & Staffan I. Lindberg, 2018. "Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues for the Comparative Study of Political Regimes," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(1), pages 60-77.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2008. "Income and Democracy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 808-842, June.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2019. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 47-100.
    4. Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2019. "Democratization and the Conditional Dynamics of Income Distribution," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 385-404, May.
    5. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Edward Miguel & Daniel Ortega & Francisco Rodriguez, 2011. "The Price of Political Opposition: Evidence from Venezuela's Maisanta," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 196-214, April.
    6. Nick Guenther & Matthias Schonlau, 2016. "Support vector machines," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(4), pages 917-937, December.
    7. Vanessa A Boese, 2019. "How (not) to measure democracy," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 95-127, June.
    8. Martin Gassebner & Michael J. Lamla & James Raymond Vreeland, 2013. "Extreme Bounds of Democracy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(2), pages 171-197, April.
    9. TokeS. Aidt & Martin Daunton & Jayasri Dutta, 2010. "The Retrenchment Hypothesis and the Extension of the Franchise in England and Wales," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(547), pages 990-1020, September.
    10. de Haan, Jakob & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2003. "Does more democracy lead to greater economic freedom? New evidence for developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 547-563, September.
    11. Gründler, Klaus & Krieger, Tommy, 2016. "Democracy and growth: Evidence from a machine learning indicator," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(S), pages 85-107.
    12. Philipp Harms & Heinrich W. Ursprung, 2002. "Do Civil and Political Repression Really Boost Foreign Direct Investments?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 651-663, October.
    13. Pemstein, Daniel & Meserve, Stephen A. & Melton, James, 2010. "Democratic Compromise: A Latent Variable Analysis of Ten Measures of Regime Type," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 426-449.
    14. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Islam and democracy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 185-192, April.
    15. Solt, Frederick, 2019. "Measuring Income Inequality Across Countries and Over Time: The Standardized World Income Inequality Database," SocArXiv mwnje, Center for Open Science.
    16. Gutmann, Jerg & Voigt, Stefan, 2018. "The rule of law: Measurement and deep roots," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 68-82.
    17. Vanya Van Belle & Ben Van Calster & Sabine Van Huffel & Johan A K Suykens & Paulo Lisboa, 2016. "Explaining Support Vector Machines: A Color Based Nomogram," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-33, October.
    18. Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2020. "Economic downturns, inequality, and democratic improvements," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    19. Hadenius,Axel, 1992. "Democracy and Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521416856.
    20. José Cheibub & Jennifer Gandhi & James Vreeland, 2010. "Democracy and dictatorship revisited," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 67-101, April.
    21. Christian Bjørnskov & Martin Rode, 2020. "Regime types and regime change: A new dataset on democracy, coups, and political institutions," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 531-551, April.
    22. Zuazu, Izaskun, 2019. "The growth effect of democracy and technology: An industry disaggregated approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 115-131.
    23. Kammerlander, Andreas & Schulze, Günther G., 2020. "Are Democracies Cleaner?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    24. Shawn Treier & Simon Jackman, 2008. "Democracy as a Latent Variable," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(1), pages 201-217, January.
    25. Toke S. Aidt & Gabriel Leon, 2016. "The Democratic Window of Opportunity," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 60(4), pages 694-717, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Clemens Fuest & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt, 2021. "Read My Lips? Taxes and Elections," CESifo Working Paper Series 9401, CESifo.
    2. Borisova, Ekaterina & Gründler, Klaus & Hackenberger, Armin & Harter, Anina & Potrafke, Niklas & Schoors, Koen, 2023. "Crisis experience and the deep roots of COVID-19 vaccination preferences," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    3. Gründler, Klaus & Krieger, Tommy, 2022. "Should we care (more) about data aggregation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    4. Batinti, Alberto & Costa-Font, Joan, 2022. "Does democracy make taller men? Cross-country European evidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113745, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Grechyna, Daryna, 2023. "Can conflicts unite a nation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. Sima, Di & Huang, Fali, 2023. "Is democracy good for growth? — Development at political transition time matters," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Batinti, Alberto & Costa-Font, Joan, 2022. "Does democracy make taller men? Cross-country European evidence," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    8. Tommy Krieger, 2022. "Democracy and the quality of economic institutions: theory and evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 192(3), pages 357-376, September.
    9. Pao-Li Chang & Tomoki Fujii & Wei Jin, 2022. "Good Names Beget Favors: The Impact of Country Image on Trade Flows and Welfare," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7555-7596, October.
    10. Osei-Tutu, Francis & Weill, Laurent, 2023. "Democracy favors access to credit of firms," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Antonio Ciccone & Adilzhan Ismailov, 2022. "Rainfall, Agricultural Output and Persistent Democratization," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(354), pages 229-257, April.
    12. Sutirtha Bagchi & Matthew J. Fagerstrom, 2023. "Wealth inequality and democracy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 197(1), pages 89-136, October.
    13. Tushar Bharati & Mohammad Farhad & Michael Jetter, 2023. "On the relationship between trade openness and government size," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 2102-2133, July.
    14. Canes-Wrone, Brandice & Ponce de Leon, Christian & Thieme, Sebastian, 2022. "Electoral Cycles, Investment, and Institutional Constraints in Developing Democracies," IAST Working Papers 22-129, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
    15. Krieger, Tommy, 2022. "Democracy and the quality of economic institutions: Theory and evidence," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-032, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Klaus Gründler & Armin Hackenberger & Anina Harter & Niklas Potrafke, 2021. "Covid-19 Vaccination: The Role of Crisis Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series 9096, CESifo.
    17. Andreas Kammerlander, 2022. "Economic Growth and Pollution in different Political Regimes," Discussion Paper Series 43, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Oct 2022.
    18. Janus, Thorsten, 2023. "Short and long run democracy diffusion," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    19. Tommy Krieger, 2022. "Elites and Health Infrastructure Improvements in Industrializing Regimes," CESifo Working Paper Series 9808, CESifo.
    20. Krieger, Tommy, 2022. "Measuring democracy," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-063, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gründler, Klaus & Krieger, Tommy, 2022. "Should we care (more) about data aggregation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Klaus Gründler & Tommy Krieger, 2021. "Using Machine Learning for Measuring Democracy: An Update," CESifo Working Paper Series 8903, CESifo.
    3. Krieger, Tommy, 2022. "Democracy and the quality of economic institutions: Theory and evidence," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-032, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    4. Sima, Di & Huang, Fali, 2023. "Is democracy good for growth? — Development at political transition time matters," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Tommy Krieger, 2022. "Democracy and the quality of economic institutions: theory and evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 192(3), pages 357-376, September.
    6. Krieger, Tommy, 2022. "Measuring democracy," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-063, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Antonio Ciccone & Adilzhan Ismailov, 2022. "Rainfall, Agricultural Output and Persistent Democratization," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(354), pages 229-257, April.
    8. Zuazu, Izaskun, 2019. "The growth effect of democracy and technology: An industry disaggregated approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 115-131.
    9. Espen Geelmuyden Rød & Carl Henrik Knutsen & Håvard Hegre, 2020. "The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 87-111, October.
    10. Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2020. "Economic downturns, inequality, and democratic improvements," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Gründler, Klaus & Krieger, Tommy, 2016. "Democracy and growth: Evidence from a machine learning indicator," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(S), pages 85-107.
    12. Klaus Gründler & Tommy Krieger, 2019. "Should We Care (More) About Data Aggregation? Evidence from Democracy Indices," CESifo Working Paper Series 7480, CESifo.
    13. Sajad Rahimian, 2021. "The Determinants of Democracy Revisited: An Instrumental Variable Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Papers 2103.04255, arXiv.org.
    14. Emilia Justyna Powell & Steven Christian McDowell & Robert O’Brien & Julia Oksasoglu, 2021. "Islam-based legal language and state governance: democracy, strength of the judiciary and human rights," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 376-412, September.
    15. Kammerlander, Andreas & Schulze, Günther G., 2020. "Are Democracies Cleaner?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    16. Niclas Berggren & Jerg Gutmann, 2020. "Securing personal freedom through institutions: the role of electoral democracy and judicial independence," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 165-186, April.
    17. Alberto Batinti & Joan Costa‐Font & Timothy J. Hatton, 2022. "Voting Up? The Effects of Democracy and Franchise Extension on Human Stature," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 161-190, January.
    18. Boese-Schlosser, Vanessa A. & Eberhardt, Markus, 2023. "How Does Democracy Cause Growth?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Transformations of Democracy SP V 2023-501, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    19. Aidt, Toke S. & Albornoz, Facundo & Gassebner, Martin, 2018. "The golden hello and political transitions," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 157-173.
    20. Dörffel, Christoph & Freytag, Andreas, 2023. "The poverty effect of democratization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Data aggregation; Democracy indicators; Machine Learning; Measurement issues; Regime classifications; Support Vector Machines;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:70:y:2021:i:c:s017626802100046x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505544 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.