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The Economic Costs of the Russia-Ukraine War: A Synthetic Control Study of (Lost) Entrepreneurship

Author

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  • David Audretsch
  • Paul P. Momtaz
  • Hanna Motuzenko
  • Silvio Vismara

Abstract

This synthetic control study quantifies the economic costs of the Russo-Ukrainian war in terms of foregone entrepreneurial activity in both countries since the invasion of Crimea in 2014. Relative to its synthetic counterfactual, Ukraine's number of self-employed dropped by 675,000, corresponding to a relative loss of 20%. The number of Ukrainian SMEs temporarily dropped by 71,000 (14%) and recovered within five years of the conflict. In contrast, Russia had lost more than 1.4 million SMEs (42%) five years into the conflict. The disappearance of Russian SMEs is driven by both fewer new businesses created and more existing business closures.

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  • David Audretsch & Paul P. Momtaz & Hanna Motuzenko & Silvio Vismara, 2023. "The Economic Costs of the Russia-Ukraine War: A Synthetic Control Study of (Lost) Entrepreneurship," Papers 2303.02773, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2303.02773
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Krämer-Eis, Helmut & Block, Jörn & Botsari, Antonia & Lang, Frank & Lorenzen, Solvej & Diegel, Walter, 2023. "Entrepreneurial finance and the Russian war against Ukraine: A survey of European venture capital and private equity investors," EIF Working Paper Series 2023/89, European Investment Fund (EIF).

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