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Do Giant Oilfield Discoveries Fuel Internal Armed Conflicts?

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  • Lei, Yu-Hsiang
  • Michaels, Guy

Abstract

We use new data to examine the effects of giant oilfield discoveries around the world since 1946. On average, these discoveries increase per capita oil production and oil exports by up to 50 percent. But these giant oilfield discoveries also have a dark side: they increase the incidence of internal armed conflict by about 5-8 percentage points. This increased incidence of conflict due to giant oilfield discoveries is especially high for countries that had already experienced armed conflicts or coups in the decade prior to discovery.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8620.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8620

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Keywords: Armed Conflict; Civil War; Natural Resources; Petroleum; Resource Curse;

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References

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  1. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios, 2007. "Economics of Conflict: An Overview," Handbook of Defense Economics, Elsevier.
  2. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "A Historical Public Debt Database," IMF Working Papers 10/245, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2011. "The Logic of Political Violence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(3), pages 1411-1445.
  4. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Daron Acemoglu & Davide Ticchi & Andrea Vindigni, 2008. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 74, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  6. Ernesto Dal Bó & Pedro Dal Bó, 2011. "Workers, Warriors, And Criminals: Social Conflict In General Equilibrium," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 646-677, 08.
  7. Francesco Caselli & Guy Michaels, 2009. "Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil," CEP Discussion Papers dp0960, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  8. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
  9. Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2006. "Diamonds are forever, wars are not. Is conflict bad for private firms?," Working Papers 2005-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  10. Anca Cotet & Kevin K. Tsui, 2010. "Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," Working Papers 201002, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
  11. Angrist, Joshua & Kugler, Adriana D., 2005. "Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income and Civil Conflict in Colombia," CEPR Discussion Papers 5324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Guy Michaels, 2007. "The long term consequences of resource based specialization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3249, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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Cited by:
  1. Berman, Nicolas & Couttenier, Mathieu, 2014. "External shocks, internal shots: the geography of civil conflicts," CEPR Discussion Papers 9895, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2013. "Resource Concentration and Civil Wars," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 13.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  3. Francesco Caselli & Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2013. "The Geography of Inter-State Resource Wars," NBER Working Papers 18978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Stephan E. Maurer & Andrei V. Potlogea, 2014. "Fueling the Gender Gap? Oil and Women's Labor and Marriage Market Outcomes," CEP Discussion Papers dp1280, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Tim Willems & Shaun Larcom & Mare Sarr, 2014. "Dictators Walking the Mogadishu Line: How Men Become Monsters and Monsters Become Men," Economics Series Working Papers 701, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Andersen, Jørgen Juel & Aslaksen, Silje, 2013. "Oil and political survival," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 89-106.

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