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Re-examining Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict

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  • Edward Miguel
  • Shanker Satyanath

Abstract

Miguel, Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, show that economic growth is negatively related to civil conflict in Africa, using annual rainfall variation as an IV for growth. Antonio Ciccone (2011) argues that thanks to rainfall's mean-reverting nature, rainfall levels are preferable to annual changes. We make three points. First, MSS's findings hold using rainfall levels as instruments. Second, Ciccone (2011) does not provide theoretical justification for preferring rainfall levels. Third, the first-stage relationship between rainfall and growth is weaker after 2000, suggesting that alternative instruments are needed when studying recent conflicts. We highlight the accumulating microeconomic evidence that adverse economic shocks lead to political violence. (JEL D74, E32, O11, O17, O47)

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/app.3.4.228
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 3 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 228-32

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:3:y:2011:i:4:p:228-32

Note: DOI: 10.1257/app.3.4.228
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References

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  1. Antonio Ciccone, 2008. "Economic shocks and civil conflict: A comment," Economics Working Papers 1127, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2011.
  2. Edward Miguel, 2009. "Africa's Turn?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012898, December.
  3. Stefano DellaVigna, 2007. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," NBER Working Papers 13420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lotta Harbom & Peter Wallensteen, 2010. "Armed Conflicts, 1946-2009," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(4), pages 501-509, July.
  5. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
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Cited by:
  1. James Fenske & Namrata Kala, 2012. "Climate, Ecosystem Resilience and the Slave Trade," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2012-23, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. Almer, Christian & Laurent-Lucchetti, Jérémy & oechslin, Manuel, 2011. "Income shocks and social unrest: theory and evidence," MPRA Paper 34426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Therese F. Azeng & Thierry Yogo Urbain, 2013. "Working Paper 171 - Youth Unemployment and Political Instability in Selected Developing Countries," Working Paper Series 467, African Development Bank.
  4. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2014. "Climate Change, Rice Crops and Violence. Evidence from Indonesia," CESifo Working Paper Series 4665, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Exenberger Andreas & Pondorfer Andreas, 2013. "Climate Change and the Risk of Mass Violence: Africa in the 21st Century," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 381-392, December.
  6. Solomon Hsiang & Marshall Burke, 2014. "Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 39-55, March.
  7. Luca Marchiori & Jean-Francois Maystadt & Ingmar Schumacher, 2013. "Is environmentally-induced income variability a driver of migration? A macroeconomic perspective," Working Papers 2013-017, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  8. Anderson, R. Warren & Johnson, Noel D & Koyama, Mark, 2013. "From the Persecuting to the Protective State? Jewish Expulsions and Weather Shocks from 1100 to 1800," MPRA Paper 44228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Hull, Peter & Imai, Masami, 2013. "Economic shocks and civil conflict: Evidence from foreign interest rate movements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 77-89.
  10. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2013. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," NBER Working Papers 19578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Klomp, Jeroen & Bulte, Erwin H., 2012. "Climate Change, Weather Shocks and Violent Conflict: A Critical Look at the Evidence," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125861, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  12. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00962481 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. repec:hal:gmonwp:halshs-00962481 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Ole Theisen & Nils Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug, 2013. "Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 613-625, April.

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