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Do giant oilfield discoveries fuel internal armed conflicts?

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  • Yu-Hsiang Lei
  • Guy Michaels

Abstract

We use new data to examine the effects of giant oilfield discoveries around the world since 1946. On average, these discoveries increase per capita oil production and oil exports by up to 50 percent. But these giant oilfield discoveries also have a dark side: they increase the incidence of internal armed conflict by about 5-8 percentage points. This increased incidence of conflict due to giant oilfield discoveries is especially high for countries that had already experienced armed conflicts or coups in the decade prior to discovery.

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File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/48088/
File Function: Open access version.
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library in its series LSE Research Online Documents on Economics with number 48088.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:48088

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Related research

Keywords: natural resources; resource curse; petroleum; armed conflict; civil war;

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References

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  1. Pedro Dal Bó & Ernesto Dal Bó, 2004. "Workers, Warriors and Criminals: Social Conflict in General Equilibrium," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 642, Econometric Society.
  2. Acemoglu, Daron & Ticchi, Davide & Vindigni, Andrea, 2008. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," Papers 03-10-2008a, Princeton University, Research Program in Political Economy.
  3. Anca M. Cotet & Kevin K. Tsui, 2013. "Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross Country Evidence Really Show?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 49-80, January.
  4. Caselli, Francesco & Michaels, Guy, 2009. "Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 7579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2006. "Diamonds are forever, wars are not. Is conflict bad for private firms?," Working Papers 2005-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
  7. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "A Historical Public Debt Database," IMF Working Papers 10/245, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Guy Michaels, 2007. "The long term consequences of resource based specialization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3249, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  9. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios, 2007. "Economics of Conflict: An Overview," Handbook of Defense Economics, Elsevier.
  10. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2011. "The Logic of Political Violence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(3), pages 1411-1445.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andersen, Jørgen Juel & Aslaksen, Silje, 2013. "Oil and political survival," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 89-106.
  2. Caselli, Francesco & Morelli, Massimo & Rohner, Dominic, 2013. "The Geography of Inter-State Resource Wars," CEPR Discussion Papers 9440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2013. "Resource Concentration and Civil Wars," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 13.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  4. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier, 2012. "External shocks, internal shots - the geography of civil conflicts," IHEID Working Papers 13-2012, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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