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Estimating the Effect of Transitory Economic Shocks on Civil Conflict

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  • Antonio Ciccone

Abstract

Economists and political scientists have argued that differences in the risk of civil conflict across countries and over time may partly reflect differences in the opportunity cost of participating in civil conflicts. One way to test for the opportunity-cost channel is to examine civil conflict risk following transitory income shocks. In this paper I propose two instrumental-variables approaches to estimate the effect of transitory income shocks on civil conflict risk. I also show that approaches not tailored to transitory income shocks may lead to the conclusion that negative income shocks increase the risk of civil conflict - which would seem consistent with an opportunity-cost channel - when they actually lower civil conflict risk. I illustrate these issues by revisiting Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti's (2004) conclusion that negative income shocks increase the risk of civil conflict in Subsaharan Africa.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Università di Perugia in its journal Review of Economics and Institutions.

Volume (Year): 4 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:pia:review:v:4:y:2013:i:2:n:1

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Keywords: transitory economic shocks; conflict; weather;

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References

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  1. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2006. "Democracy and Development: The Devil in the Details," NBER Working Papers 11993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 69-85, Fall.
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  10. Elias Papaioannou & Gregorios Siourounis, 2007. "Initial Factors Behind The Third Wave of Democratization," Working Papers 0002, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Is Rain Good For Democracy?
    by Ariel Goldring in Free Market Mojo on 2010-08-02 09:00:05
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Cited by:
  1. Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Working Papers 1010, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  2. Thorsten Drautzburg & Inna Melnykovska & Rainer Schweickert, 2008. "Which Membership Matters? External vs. Internal Determinants of Institutional Change in Transition Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1421, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Francesco Caselli & Andrea Tesei, 2011. "Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability," NBER Working Papers 17601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Rabah Arezki & Markus Bruckner, 2011. "Food Prices and Political Instability," IMF Working Papers 11/62, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Ghazala Azmat & Marc Möller, 2012. "The distribution of talent across contests," Economics Working Papers 1298, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2013.
  6. Danne, Christian, 2012. "Commitment devices, opportunity windows, and institution building in Central Asia," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/04, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
  7. Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon & Inna Melnykovska & Rainer Schweickert, 2009. "Prospective NATO or EU Membership and Institutional Change in Transition Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0131, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  8. Papaioannou, Elias & Siourounis, Gregorios, 2008. "Economic and Social Factors Driving the Third Wave of Democratization," CEPR Discussion Papers 6986, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Qiang Chen, 2012. "Climate Shocks, Dynastic Cycles, and Nomadic Conquests: Evidence from Historical China," SDU Working Papers 2012-01, School of Economics, Shandong University.
  10. Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon & Inna Melnykovska & Rainer Schweickert, 2009. "Prospective Membership and Institutional Change in Transition Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1562, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  11. Stéphane Bonhomme & Elena Manresa, 2012. "Grouped Patterns Of Heterogeneity In Panel Data," Working Papers wp2012_1208, CEMFI.

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