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One strike and you’re out! Dictators’ fate in the aftermath of terrorism

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  • Adam, Antonis
  • Tsavou, Evi

Abstract

We use a cross-country dataset on terrorism and leadership survival from 1970 through 2015 to shed light on a leader’s fate after terrorists’ strike. We provide robust evidence that incumbents in electoral authoritarian regimes face an increased hazard of exit from political power. This is contrasted with the closed authoritarian dictators that remain intact. Moreover, we fail to find a robust effect of terrorism on a leader’s survival probability in democracies. We conceive this effect to be due to the collapse of the elite coalition in autocracies after an attack, suggesting that the Dictator’s “loyal friends” betray him in the aftermath of terrorism.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam, Antonis & Tsavou, Evi, 2020. "One strike and you’re out! Dictators’ fate in the aftermath of terrorism," MPRA Paper 103772, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:103772
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/103772/1/MPRA_paper_103772.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorism · Political Survival · Incumbent Leaders · Electoral Autocracies · Closed Autocracies;

    JEL classification:

    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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