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International Terrorism, Political Instability and the Escalation Effect

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Abstract

What are the main causes of international terrorism? The lessons from the surge of academic research that followed 9/11 remain elusive. The careful investigation of the relative roles of economic and political conditions did little to change the fact that existing econometric estimates diverge in size, sign and significance. In this paper we present a new rationale (the escalation effect) stressing domestic political instability as the main reason for international terrorism. Econometric evidence from a panel of more than 130 countries (yearly from 1968 to 2003) shows this to be a much more promising avenue for future research than the available alternatives.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 09-220.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:09-220

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Keywords: terrorism; international terrorism; political instability; escalation;

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  1. Ana Bela Santos Bravo & Carlos Manuel Mendes Dias, 2006. "An Empirical Analysis Of Terrorism: Deprivation, Islamism And Geopolitical Factors," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 329-341.
  2. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
  3. Abadie, Alberto, 2004. "Poverty, Political Freedom, and the Roots of Terrorism," Working Paper Series rwp04-043, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  4. Dreher, Axel & Fischer, Justina AV, 2007. "Decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? An empirical test," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 686, Stockholm School of Economics.
  5. Atin Basuchoudhary & William Shughart, 2010. "On Ethnic Conflict And The Origins Of Transnational Terrorism," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 65-87.
  6. Azam, Jean-Paul & Delacroix, Alexandra, 2004. "Aid and the Delegated Fight against Terrorism," IDEI Working Papers 324, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Jul 2005.
  7. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D. & Weerapana, Akila, 2004. "Economic conditions and terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 463-478, June.
  8. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger & Alois Stutzer, 2004. "Calculating Tragedy: Assessing the Costs of Terrorism," CESifo Working Paper Series 1341, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Eli Berman & David D. Laitin, 2008. "Religion, Terrorism and Public Goods: Testing the Club Model," NBER Working Papers 13725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Nauro F. Campos & Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2001. "Who Is Afraid Of Political Instability?," Development and Comp Systems 0012016, EconWPA.
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  13. Jean-Paul Azam & Véronique Thelen, 2008. "The roles of foreign aid and education in the war on terror," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 375-397, June.
  14. Dreher, Axel & Gassebner, Martin, 2008. "Does political proximity to the U.S. cause terror?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 27-29, April.
  15. Chamberlain, Gary, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 225-38, January.
  16. Guimarães, Paulo, 2008. "The fixed effects negative binomial model revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 63-66, April.
  17. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
  18. Enders, Walter, 2007. "Terrorism: An Empirical Analysis," Handbook of Defense Economics, Elsevier.
  19. Llussá, Fernanda & Tavares, José, 2007. "Economics and Terrorism: What We Know, What We Should Know and the Data We Need," CEPR Discussion Papers 6509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Tavares, Jose, 2004. "The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1039-1070, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part II)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1050, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Dreher, Axel & Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2011. "Hit and (they will) run: The impact of terrorism on migration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 42-46, October.
  3. Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs, 2011. "Does terror increase aid?," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 86, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  4. Krisztina Kis-Katos & Helge Liebert & Guenther G. Schulze, 2012. "On the Heterogeneity of Terror," Discussion Paper Series 19, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised May 2012.
  5. Martin Gassebner & Simon Luechinger, 2011. "Lock, Stock, and Barrel: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Determinants of Terror," CESifo Working Paper Series 3550, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Azam, Jean-Paul & Thelen, Véronique, 2012. "Where to Spend Foreign Aid to Counter Terrorism," TSE Working Papers 12-316, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  7. Malik, Zahra & Zaman, Khalid, 2013. "Macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1103-1123.

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