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International Terrorism, Political Instability and the Escalation Effect

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  • Campos, Nauro F.
  • Gassebner, Martin

Abstract

What are the main causes of international terrorism? The lessons from the surge of academic research that followed 9/11 remain elusive. The careful investigation of the relative roles of economic and political conditions did little to change the fact that existing econometric estimates diverge in size, sign and significance. In this paper we present a new rationale (the escalation effect) stressing domestic political instability as the main reason for international terrorism. Econometric evidence from a panel of more than 130 countries (yearly from 1968 to 2003) shows this to be a much more promising avenue for future research than the available alternatives.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7226.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7226

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Keywords: escalation; international terrorism; political instability; terrorism;

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References

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  1. Jean-Paul Azam & Véronique Thelen, 2008. "The roles of foreign aid and education in the war on terror," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 375-397, June.
  2. Azam, Jean-Paul & Delacroix, Alexandra, 2006. "Aid and the Delegated Fight against Terrorism," Open Access publications from University of Toulouse 1 Capitole http://neeo.univ-tlse1.fr, University of Toulouse 1 Capitole.
  3. Axel Dreher & Justina A. V. Fischer, 2008. "Decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? An empirical test," KOF Working papers 08-185, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
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  16. Tavares, Jose, 2004. "The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1039-1070, July.
  17. Atin Basuchoudhary & William Shughart, 2010. "On Ethnic Conflict And The Origins Of Transnational Terrorism," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 65-87.
  18. Guimarães, Paulo, 2008. "The fixed effects negative binomial model revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 63-66, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Martin Gassebner & Simon Luechinger, 2011. "Lock, stock, and barrel: a comprehensive assessment of the determinants of terror," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 235-261, December.
  2. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part II)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1050, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Dreher, Axel & Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2011. "Hit and (they will) run: The impact of terrorism on migration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 42-46, October.
  4. Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Liebert, Helge & Schulze, Günther G., 2012. "On the Heterogeneity of Terror," IZA Discussion Papers 6596, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs, 2011. "Does terror increase aid?," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 86, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  6. Azam, Jean-Paul & Thelen, Véronique, 2012. "Where to Spend Foreign Aid to Counter Terrorism," IDEI Working Papers 725, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  7. Azam, Jean-Paul & Thelen, Véronique, 2012. "Where to Spend Foreign Aid to Counter Terrorism," TSE Working Papers 12-316, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

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