IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tse/wpaper/28857.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did the Aid Boom Pacify Sub-Saharan Africa?: Ex-Post Evaluation Using a Near-Identification Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Azam, Jean-Paul
  • Thelen, Véronique

Abstract

The incidence of civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa since the turn of the century is less than half of what it was on average in the last quarter of the 20th century. This paper shows that the aid boom triggered by 9/11 played a key role in achieving purposefully this result using panel data for 46 African countries over four decades. It applies a nearidentification approach to test the aid-conflict trade-off, taking due account of asymmetric information between the donors and the econometrician. Preference proxies are used in the first-stage to elicit the relevant hidden information.

Suggested Citation

  • Azam, Jean-Paul & Thelen, Véronique, 2014. "Did the Aid Boom Pacify Sub-Saharan Africa?: Ex-Post Evaluation Using a Near-Identification Approach," TSE Working Papers 14-544, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jun 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:28857
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/medias/doc/wp/dev/aid_boom.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Macartan Humphreys, 2005. "Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 508-537, August.
    2. Jean-Paul Azam & Véronique Thelen, 2008. "The roles of foreign aid and education in the war on terror," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 375-397, June.
    3. Jean-Paul Azam & Véronique Thelen, 2010. "Foreign Aid Versus Military Intervention in the War on Terror," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(2), pages 237-261, April.
    4. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler & Javed Younas, 2011. "Foreign direct investment, aid, and terrorism: an analysis of developing countries," Working Papers 2011-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-793, May.
    6. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2011. "Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9624.
    7. Alesina, Alberto & Dollar, David, 2000. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 33-63, March.
    8. Alberto Alesina & Beatrice Weder, 2002. "Do Corrupt Governments Receive Less Foreign Aid?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1126-1137, September.
    9. Katherine Casey & Rachel Glennerster & Edward Miguel, 2012. "Reshaping Institutions: Evidence on Aid Impacts Using a Preanalysis Plan," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(4), pages 1755-1812.
    10. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    11. Fleck, Robert K. & Kilby, Christopher, 2010. "Changing aid regimes? U.S. foreign aid from the Cold War to the War on Terror," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 185-197, March.
    12. Arndt, Channing & Jones, Sam & Tarp, Finn, 2015. "Assessing Foreign Aid’s Long-Run Contribution to Growth and Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 6-18.
    13. Boone, Peter, 1996. "Politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 289-329, February.
    14. James D. Fearon & Macartan Humphreys & Jeremy M. Weinstein, 2009. "Can Development Aid Contribute to Social Cohesion after Civil War? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Post-conflict Liberia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 287-291, May.
    15. Kalyvas, Stathis N. & Balcells, Laia, 2010. "International System and Technologies of Rebellion: How the End of the Cold War Shaped Internal Conflict," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(3), pages 415-429, August.
    16. Frey, Bruno S., 1984. "The public choice view of international political economy," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 199-223, January.
    17. Jean-Paul Azam, 2006. "The Paradox of Power Reconsidered: A Theory of Political Regimes in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 15(1), pages 26-58, March.
    18. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler & Javed Younas, 2011. "Foreign aid as counterterrorism policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 423-447, July.
    19. Ndulu,Benno J. & O'Connell,Stephen A. & Bates,Robert H. & Collier,Paul & Soludo,Chukwuma C., 2009. "The Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa, 1960–2000," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521127752.
    20. de Ree, Joppe & Nillesen, Eleonora, 2009. "Aiding violence or peace? The impact of foreign aid on the risk of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 301-313, March.
    21. Nauro F. Campos & Martin Gassebner, 2009. "International terrorism, political instability and the escalation effect," KOF Working papers 09-220, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    22. Paul Collier, 2000. "Rebellion as a Quasi-Criminal Activity," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(6), pages 839-853, December.
    23. Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs, 2011. "Rogue Aid? The Determinants of China’s Aid Allocation," Working Papers CEB 11-035, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    24. Joseph Young & Michael Findley, 2011. "Can peace be purchased? A sectoral-level analysis of aid’s influence on transnational terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 365-381, December.
    25. Jean-Paul Azam & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2004. "Aid versus sanctions for taming oppressors: theory and case study of the Iraqi Kurds," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 343-364.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Azam, Jean-Paul & Thelen, Véronique, 2012. "Where to Spend Foreign Aid to Counter Terrorism," IDEI Working Papers 725, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    2. Paul Bezerra & Alex Braithwaite, 2016. "Locating foreign aid commitments in response to political violence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 333-355, December.
    3. Lis, Piotr, 2018. "The impact of armed conflict and terrorism on foreign aid: A sector-level analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 283-294.
    4. Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs, 2011. "Does terror increase aid?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 337-363, December.
    5. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2011. "Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9624.
    6. Raechelle Mascarenhas & Todd Sandler, 2014. "Remittances and terrorism: A global analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 331-347, August.
    7. Joseph Young & Michael Findley, 2011. "Can peace be purchased? A sectoral-level analysis of aid’s influence on transnational terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 365-381, December.
    8. Andrew Boutton, 2019. "Of terrorism and revenue: Why foreign aid exacerbates terrorism in personalist regimes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(4), pages 359-384, July.
    9. Broich, Tobias, 2017. "Do authoritarian regimes receive more Chinese development finance than democratic ones? Empirical evidence for Africa," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 180-207.
    10. Axel Dreher & Sarah Langlotz & Silvia Marchesi, 2017. "Information Transmission And Ownership Consolidation In Aid Programs," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(4), pages 1671-1688, October.
    11. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4415-4523, Elsevier.
    12. Azam, Jean-Paul & Berlinschi, Ruxanda, 2008. "The Aid-Migration of Trade-Off," IDEI Working Papers 538, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    13. repec:elg:eechap:15325_15 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Broich, Tobias, 2017. "Do authoritarian regimes receive more Chinese development finance than democratic ones? Empirical evidence for Africa," MERIT Working Papers 2017-011, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    15. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2023. "Common myths of terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 271-301, April.
    16. Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs, 2015. "Rogue aid? An empirical analysis of China's aid allocation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(3), pages 988-1023, August.
    17. Herzer, Dierk & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2012. "The effect of foreign aid on income inequality: Evidence from panel cointegration," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 245-255.
    18. Hagen, Rune Jansen, 2014. "Rents and the Political Economy of Development Aid," Working Papers in Economics 07/14, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    19. Ozan Hatipoglu & Alp Eren Akyuz, 2018. "Donor-oriented foreign aid, trade and growth," Working Papers 2018/01, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    20. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2021. "Quid pro quo? Political ties and sovereign borrowing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    21. Broich, Tobias & Szirmai, Adam & Thomsson, Kaj, 2015. "Precolonial centralisation, foreign aid and modern state capacity in Africa," MERIT Working Papers 2015-025, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Aid; Africa; Civil Wars;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • N47 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Africa; Oceania
    • P45 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - International Linkages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:28857. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tsetofr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.