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Does Aid Mitigate External Shocks?

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  • Paul Collier
  • Benedikt Goderis

Abstract

The authors investigate the role of aid in mitigating the adverse effects of commodity export price shocks on growth in commodity-dependent countries. Using a large cross-country dataset, they find that negative shocks matter for short-term growth, while the ex ante risk of shocks does not seem to matter. They also find that both the level of aid and the flexibility of the exchange rate substantially lower the adverse growth effect of shocks. While the mitigating effect of aid is significant in both countries with pegs and countries with floats, the effect seems to be smaller for the latter, suggesting that aid and exchange rate flexibility are partly substitutes. They investigate whether aid has historically been targeted at shock-prone countries, but find no evidence that this is the case. This suggests that donors could increase aid effectiveness by redirecting aid toward countries with a high incidence of commodity export price shocks. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2009)
Issue (Month): s1 (08)
Pages: 429-451

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Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:13:y:2009:i:s1:p:429-451

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  1. Burnside, Craig & Dollar, David, 1997. "Aid, policies, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1777, The World Bank.
  2. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
  3. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity Price Uncertainty in Developing Countries," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2007. "Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Natural Resource Curse: Reconciling a Conundrum," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2007-15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  5. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  6. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  7. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. P. Guillaumont & L. Chauvet, 2001. "Aid and Performance: A Reassessment," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 66-92.
  10. Raddatz, Claudio, 2005. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3680, The World Bank.
  11. Dehn, Jan, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2426, The World Bank.
  12. Benedikt Goderis & Vasso P. Ioannidou, 2006. "Do High Interest Rates Defend Currencies During Speculative Attacks? New evidence," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  13. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  14. David Roodman, 2003. "XTABOND2: Stata module to extend xtabond dynamic panel data estimator," Statistical Software Components S435901, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 05 Feb 2014.
  15. Tavares, Jose, 2003. "Does foreign aid corrupt?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 99-106, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pettersson, Jan & Johansson, Lars M, 2009. "Tied Aid, Trade-Facilitating Aid or Trade-Diverting Aid?," Working Paper Series 2009:5, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  2. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2009. "Structural Policies for Shock-Prone Developing Countries," Economics Series Working Papers CSAE WPS/2009-03, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Guillaumont, Patrick & Wagner, Laurent, 2012. "Aid and Growth Accelerations: Vulnerability Matters," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  4. Era Dabla-Norris & Camelia Minoiu & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, and Development Aid: New Evidence," IMF Working Papers 10/240, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Thierry Kangoye, 2008. "Instability from trade and democracy: the long-run effect of aid," Post-Print hal-00331902, HAL.
  6. Sergio Tezanos Vázquez, 2010. "Ayuda y crecimiento: una relación en disputa," Documentos de trabajo sobre cooperación y desarrollo 201001, Cátedra de Cooperación Internacional y con Iberoamérica (COIBA), Universidad de Cantabria.
  7. Sergio Tezanos Vázquez & Rogelio Madrueño Aguilar & Marta Guijarro Garví, 2009. "Impacto de la ayuda sobre el crecimiento económico. El caso de América Latina y el Caribe," Documentos de trabajo sobre cooperación y desarrollo 200904, Cátedra de Cooperación Internacional y con Iberoamérica (COIBA), Universidad de Cantabria.
  8. Thierry Kangoye, 2008. "Instability from trade and democracy: the long-run effect of aid," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(41), pages 1-16.
  9. Sergio Tezanos Vázquez, 2009. "Geopolítica de la ayuda ¿Cómo optimizar el impacto de la ayuda sobre el crecimiento?," Documentos de trabajo sobre cooperación y desarrollo 200903, Cátedra de Cooperación Internacional y con Iberoamérica (COIBA), Universidad de Cantabria.

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