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An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Michael K Andersson & Ted Aranki & André Reslow, 2017. "Adjusting for information content when comparing forecast performance," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 784-794, November.
  2. Diego Winkelried, 2017. "Inferring Inflation Expectations from Fixed-Event Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 1-31, June.
  3. Capistrán Carlos & López Moctezuma Gabriel, 2008. "Experts' Macroeconomics Expectations: An Evaluation of Mexican Short-Run Forecasts," Working Papers 2008-11, Banco de México.
  4. Mikael C. Bergbrant & Patrick J. Kelly, 2016. "Macroeconomic Expectations and the Size, Value, and Momentum Factors," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 45(4), pages 809-844, December.
  5. Alexander Foltas & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Business-cycle reports and the efficiency of macroeconomic forecasts for Germany," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(10), pages 867-872, June.
  6. Carabotta, Laura & Paluzie, Elisenda & Ramos, Raul, 2017. "Does fiscal responsibility matter? Evidence from public and private forecasters in Italy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 694-706.
  7. Masahito Ambashi & Fusanori Iwasaki & Keita Oikawa, 2021. "Prediction Errors of Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Shocks for ASEAN Member States," Working Papers DP-2022-02, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
  8. Winkelried, Diego, 2023. "Simple interpolations of inflation expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
  9. Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013. "Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
  10. Aromí, J. Daniel, 2019. "Medium term growth forecasts: Experts vs. simple models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1085-1099.
  11. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2022. "Uncertainty in long-term macroeconomic forecasts: Ex post evaluation of forecasts by economics researchers," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 8-15.
  12. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 18-52, Bank of Canada.
  13. Jaramillo, Laura & Mulas-Granados, Carlos & Kimani, Elijah, 2017. "Debt spikes and stock flow adjustments: Emerging economies in perspective," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-14.
  14. Yan Carrière-Swallow & José Marzluf, 2023. "Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 509-537, June.
  15. Thomas Jobert & Lionel Persyn, 2012. "Quelques constats sur les prévisions conjoncturelles de la croissance française," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 122(6), pages 833-849.
  16. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Evaluation of Global Accuracy of Romanian Inflation Rate Predictions Using Mahalanobis Distance," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 133-149, March.
  17. Behrens, Christoph & Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian, 2018. "Testing the optimality of inflation forecasts under flexible loss with random forests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 270-277.
  18. Jin-Kyu Jung & Manasa Patnam & Anna Ter-Martirosyan, 2018. "An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning," IMF Working Papers 2018/230, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Robert Lehmann, 2021. "Forecasting exports across Europe: What are the superior survey indicators?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2429-2453, May.
  20. Burgess, Matthew G. & Langendorf, Ryan E. & Ippolito, Tara & Pielke, Roger Jr, 2020. "Optimistically biased economic growth forecasts and negatively skewed annual variation," SocArXiv vndqr, Center for Open Science.
  21. Paulo Júlio & Pedro M. Esperança, 2012. "Evaluating the forecast quality of GDP components: An application to G7," GEE Papers 0047, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Apr 2012.
  22. Katja Heinisch & Axel Lindner, 2019. "For how long do IMF forecasts of world economic growth stay up-to-date?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 255-260, February.
  23. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "Thirty‐year assessment of Asian Development Bank's forecasts," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(2), pages 18-40, November.
  24. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2023. "Assessing the World Bank’s growth forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 64-84.
  25. Paloviita, Maritta & Ikonen, Pasi, 2016. "How to explain errors in budget balance forecasts in euro area countries? Empirical evidence based on real-time data," Research Discussion Papers 17/2016, Bank of Finland.
  26. Paulo Júlio & Pedro M. Esperança & João C. Fonseca, 2011. "Evaluating the forecast quality of GDP components," GEE Papers 0041 Classification-C52, , Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Oct 2011.
  27. Carlos Fonseca Marinheiro, 2010. "Fiscal sustainability and the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts: do supranational forecasts rather than government forecasts make a difference?," GEMF Working Papers 2010-07, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  28. Grigoli, Francesco & Herman, Alexander & Swiston, Andrew & Di Bella, Gabriel, 2015. "Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 329-358.
  29. Paloviita, Maritta & Ikonen, Pasi, 2016. "How to explain errors in budget balance forecasts in euro area countries? Empirical evidence based on real-time data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2016, Bank of Finland.
  30. Frank, Luis, 2021. "¿Son sesgadas las proyecciones de WEO? El caso de la proyección de crecimiento de Argentina [Are the WEO forecasts biased? The case of Argentina's growth forecast]," MPRA Paper 114333, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  31. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_017 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Maritta Paloviita & Pasi Ikonen, 2018. "Real-time uncertainty in budget planning: evidence from euro area countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 281-300, October.
  33. Christoph Behrens, 2019. "A Nonparametric Evaluation of the Optimality of German Export and Import Growth Forecasts under Flexible Loss," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-23, September.
  34. María Paula Bonel & Daniel J. Aromí, 2021. "Assessing GDP forecasts from autoregressive models: the impact of model complexity and training dataset," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4440, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
  35. Hassan Naqvi, 2014. "IMF Conditionality and the Intertemporal Allocation of Resources," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 203-235, June.
  36. Ley, Eduardo & Misch, Florian, 2013. "Real-time macro monitoring and fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6303, The World Bank.
  37. A. Melander & G. Sismanidis & D. Grenouilleau, 2007. "The track record of the Commission's forecasts - an update," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 291, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  38. Masahito Ambashi & Fusanori Iwasaki & Keita Oikawa, 2022. "Prediction Errors of Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Shocks for ASEAN Member States, 1990-2021," KIER Working Papers 1088, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  39. Capistrán, Carlos & López-Moctezuma, Gabriel, 2010. "Las expectativas macroeconómicas de los especialistas. Una evaluación de pronósticos de corto plazo en México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(306), pages 275-312, abril-jun.
  40. Timmermann, Allan & Zhu, Yinchu, 2019. "Comparing Forecasting Performance with Panel Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 13746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  41. Eicher, Theo S. & Rollinson, Yuan Gao, 2023. "The accuracy of IMF crises nowcasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 431-449.
  42. Mandalinci, Zeyyad, 2017. "Forecasting inflation in emerging markets: An evaluation of alternative models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1082-1104.
  43. Fernando M. Martin & Juan M. Sanchez & Olivia Wilkinson, 2023. "The Economic Impact of COVID-19 around the World," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 105(2), pages 74-88, April.
  44. Emilian Dobrescu, 2014. "Attempting to Quantify the Accuracy of Complex Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-21, December.
  45. Bourmpoula, Evangelia. & Wieser, Christina., 2014. "An accuracy assessment of the global employment trends' unemployment rate forecasts," ILO Working Papers 994888903402676, International Labour Organization.
  46. Behrens, Christoph, 2020. "German trade forecasts since 1970: An evaluation using the panel dimension," Working Papers 26, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
  47. Paulina Ziembińska, 2021. "Quality of Tests of Expectation Formation for Revised Data," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(4), pages 405-453, December.
  48. Drechsel, Katja & Giesen, Sebastian & Lindner, Axel, 2014. "Outperforming IMF Forecasts by the Use of Leading Indicators," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100393, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  49. Rossana Merola & Javier J. Pérez, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," Working Papers 1233, Banco de España.
  50. Michel, David, 2009. "Foxes, hedgehogs, and greenhouse governance: Knowledge, uncertainty, and international policy-making in a warming World," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 258-264, February.
  51. Bourmpoula, Evangelia. & Wieser, Christina., 2014. "An accuracy assessment of the global employment trends' unemployment rate forecasts," Global Employment Trends Reports 994888903402676, International Labour Office, Economic and Labour Market Analysis Department.
  52. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Pericoli, Filippo Maria, 2020. "Are GDP forecasts optimal? Evidence on European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 963-973.
  53. Ildeberta Abreu, 2011. "International organisations’ vs. private analysts’ forecasts: an evaluation," Working Papers w201120, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  54. Klaus-Peter Hellwig, 2018. "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections," IMF Working Papers 2018/260, International Monetary Fund.
  55. Laura Jaramillo & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados & Elijah Kimani, 2016. "The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes," IMF Working Papers 2016/202, International Monetary Fund.
  56. Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011. "Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465.
  57. Nordvik, Frode Martin, 2022. "Inflation news and the poor: The role of ethnic heterogeneity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  58. Axel Dreher & Silvia Marchesi & James Raymond Vreeland, 2007. "The Politics of IMF Forecasts," KOF Working papers 07-176, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  59. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Alejandro Mariano Werner & Rene Zamarripa, 2021. "Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons," IMF Working Papers 2021/136, International Monetary Fund.
  60. H.O. Stekler & Huixia Zhang, 2013. "An evaluation of Chinese economic forecasts," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 251-259, November.
  61. Maritta Paloviita & Pasi Ikonen, 2018. "Real-time uncertainty in budget planning: evidence from euro area countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 281-300, October.
  62. Giang Ho & Paolo Mauro, 2016. "Growth—Now and Forever?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 526-547, August.
  63. repec:ilo:ilowps:488890 is not listed on IDEAS
  64. Eicher, Theo S. & Kawai, Reina, 2023. "IMF trade forecasts for crisis countries: Bias, inefficiency, and their origins," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1615-1639.
  65. Timmermann, Allan & Qu, Ritong & Zhu, Yinchu, 2019. "Do Any Economists Have Superior Forecasting Skills?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  66. Jungjin Lee & Mr. Abdul d Abiad & Mr. Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Evaluating Historical CGER Assessments: How Well Have They Predicted Subsequent Exchange Rate Movements?," IMF Working Papers 2009/032, International Monetary Fund.
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