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¿Son sesgadas las proyecciones de WEO? El caso de la proyección de crecimiento de Argentina
[Are the WEO forecasts biased? The case of Argentina's growth forecast]

Author

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  • Frank, Luis

Abstract

The papers reveals the existence of a systematic bias in WEO's growth forecasts for Argentina. This bias is observed in the projection for April of the year $t-1$ and eventually in the projection for September/October of the same year, and does not coincide with the scheme found by other authors for the global growth's forecast or for large groups of countries. The conclusion, however, depends strongly on the validity of the covariance structure of the errors for between consecutive forecasts, for which it is suggested to consider this conclusion provisional.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank, Luis, 2021. "¿Son sesgadas las proyecciones de WEO? El caso de la proyección de crecimiento de Argentina [Are the WEO forecasts biased? The case of Argentina's growth forecast]," MPRA Paper 114333, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:114333
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Alejandro Mariano Werner & Rene Zamarripa, 2021. "Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons," IMF Working Papers 2021/136, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kareem Ismail & Mr. Roberto Perrelli & Jessie Yang, 2020. "Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts—The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments," IMF Working Papers 2020/229, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Allan Timmermann, 2007. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(1), pages 1-33, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WEO; bias; growth forecast; Argentina;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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