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Inferring inflation expectations from fixed-event forecasts

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  • Winkelried, Diego

    (Universidad del Pacífico)

Abstract

Often, expected inflation measured by surveys are available only as fixed-event forecasts. Even though these surveys do contain information of a complete term structure of expectations, direct inferences about them are troublesome. Records of a fixed-event forecast through time are associated with time-varying forecast horizons, and there is no straightforward way to interpolate such figures. This paper proposes an adaptation of the measurement model of Kozicki and Tinsley (2012) [“Effective use of survey information in estimating the evolution of expected inflation”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44(1), 145-169] to suit the intricacies of fixed-event data. Using the Latin American Consensus Forecasts, the model is estimated to study the behavior of inflation expectations in four inflation targeters (Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru). For these countries, the results suggest that the announcement of credible inflation targets has been instrumental in anchoring long-run expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Winkelried, Diego, 2014. "Inferring inflation expectations from fixed-event forecasts," Working Papers 2014-016, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2014-016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Myriam Quispe-Agnoli, 2001. "Monetary policy alternatives for Latin America," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 86(Q3), pages 43-53.
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    3. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    4. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    5. Marco Vega & Diego Winkelried, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    6. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
    7. H. Bakhshi & G. Kapetanios & T. Yates, 2005. "Rational expectations and fixed-event forecasts: An application to UK inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 539-553, October.
    8. Allan Timmermann, 2007. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(1), pages 1-33, May.
    9. Christopher Herrington & Yash P. Mehra, 2008. "On the sources of movements in inflation expectations : a few insights from a VAR model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 94(Spr), pages 121-146.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    2. Winkelried, Diego, 2023. "Simple interpolations of inflation expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    3. Mototsugu Shintani & Naoto Soma, 2020. "The Effects of QQE on Long-run Inflation Expectations in Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-494, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    4. Feldkircher, Martin & Siklos, Pierre L., 2019. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 217-241.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survey expectations; fixed-event forecasts; Kalman filter; inflation targeting; Latin America;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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