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Citations for "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models"

by Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy

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  1. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "Selecting a Nonlinear Time Series Model using Weighted Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-10, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  2. Hui Feng & Jia Liu, 2002. "A SETAR Model for Canadian GDP: Non-Linearities and Forecast Comparisons," Econometrics Working Papers 0206, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  3. Terui, N. & van Dijk, H.K., 1999. "Combined forecasts from linear and nonlinear time series models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9949-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  4. Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2007. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Discussion Papers 5_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  5. Claveria, Oscar & Pons, Ernest & Ramos, Raul, 2007. "Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-69.
  6. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 1210, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  7. Mouratidis, Kostas, 2008. "Evaluating currency crises: A Bayesian Markov switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1688-1711, December.
  8. Chunming Yuan, 2008. "Forecasting Exchange Rates: The Multi-State Markov-Switching Model with Smoothing," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-115, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
  9. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
  10. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00185373 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Adrian Cantemir Calin & Tiberiu Diaconescu & Oana – Cristina Popovici, 2014. "Nonlinear Models for Economic Forecasting Applications: An Evolutionary Discussion," Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 2(1), pages 42-47, June.
  12. Paulo Rodrigues & Nazarii Salish, 2015. "Modeling and forecasting interval time series with threshold models," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 9(1), pages 41-57, March.
  13. G. Boero & E. Marrocu, 2002. "The performance of Setar Models: a regime conditional evaluation of point, interval and density forecasts," Working Paper CRENoS 200208, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  14. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2012. "Optimal forecasting of noncausal autoregressive time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 623-631.
  15. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society.
  16. G. Boero & E. Marrocu, 2001. "Evaluating non-linear models on point and interval forecasts: an application with exchange rate returns," Working Paper CRENoS 200110, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  17. Simpson, Paul W & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2001. "Forecasting UK Industrial Production over the Business Cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 405-24, September.
  18. Franses, Philip Hans & van Dijk, Dick, 2005. "The forecasting performance of various models for seasonality and nonlinearity for quarterly industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-102.
  19. Kostas Mouratidis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2004. "Evaluating currency crises: the case of the European Monetary System," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 69, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  20. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2005. "Evaluating non-linear models on point and interval forecasts: an application with exchange rates," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(232), pages 91-120.
  21. Timo Teräsvirta & Dick van Dijk & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2004. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A reexamination," Textos para discussão 485, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  22. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 1997. "The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 463-475, December.
  23. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Threshold Models for Trended Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9905, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  24. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00185372 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Oscar Claveria & Salvador Torra, 2013. "“Forecasting Business surveys indicators: neural networks vs. time series models”," IREA Working Papers 201320, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2013.
  26. Kuo, Biing-Shen & Mikkola, Anne, 2000. "Forecasting the real US/DEM exchange rate : TAR vs. AR," Research Discussion Papers 13/2000, Bank of Finland.
  27. David G. McMillan, 2009. "Non-linear interest rate dynamics and forecasting: evidence for US and Australian interest rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 139-155.
  28. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 2001. "Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 133-148, February.
  29. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart & McMillan, David & Ono, Sadayuki, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: When and where is it exploitable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 373-399.
  30. Fredj Jawadi, 2009. "Essay in dividend modelling and forecasting: does nonlinearity help?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(16), pages 1329-1343.
  31. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  32. Shiyi Chen & Wolfgang K. Härdle & Kiho Jeong, 2010. "Forecasting volatility with support vector machine-based GARCH model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 406-433.
  33. Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43.
  34. Guney, Selin, 2015. "An Analysis of the Pass-Through of Exchange Rates in Tropical Forest Product Markets: A Smooth Transition Approach," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205107, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
  35. Anja Rossen, 2016. "On the Predictive Content of Nonlinear Transformations of Lagged Autoregression Residuals and Time Series Observations," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 236(3), pages 389-409, April.
  36. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Self-organizing map analysis of agents’ expectations. Different patterns of anticipation of the 2008 financial crisis”," AQR Working Papers 201508, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Mar 2015.
  37. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 341-361.
  38. Perez-Rodriguez, Jorge V. & Torra, Salvador & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 2005. "STAR and ANN models: forecasting performance on the Spanish "Ibex-35" stock index," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 490-509, June.
  39. Francisco Ledesma-Rodriguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibanez & Jorge Perez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2005. "Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(19), pages 2265-2287.
  40. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, November.
  41. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2004. "A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-236.
  42. repec:hhs:bofrdp:2000_013 is not listed on IDEAS
  43. Ahmad, Saad & Civelli, Andrea, 2016. "Globalization and inflation: A threshold investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 283-304.
  44. Chunming Yuan, 2008. "The Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Determinants: Time-Varying Transitional Dynamics," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-114, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
  45. Huber Florian, 2016. "Forecasting exchange rates using multivariate threshold models," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 193-210, January.
  46. repec:ntu:ntugeo:vol2-iss1-14-042 is not listed on IDEAS
  47. G. Boero & E. Marrocu, 2000. "La performance di modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un'applicazione con dati a diversa frequenza," Working Paper CRENoS 200014, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  48. Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses & Michael P. Clements & Jeremy Smith, 2003. "On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 359-375.
  49. McMillan, David G., 2007. "Non-linear forecasting of stock returns: Does volume help?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 115-126.
  50. Nektarios Aslanidis, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Working Papers 0201, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  51. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  52. Shiyi Chen & Kiho Jeong & Wolfgang Härdle, 2008. "Support Vector Regression Based GARCH Model with Application to Forecasting Volatility of Financial Returns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-014, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  53. Li, Jing, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 320-332, April.
  54. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
  55. Jack R. Rogers, 2013. "Monetary Transmission to UK Retail Mortgage Rates before and after August 2007," Discussion Papers 1307, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  56. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Nazarii Salish, 2011. "Modeling and Forecasting Interval Time Series with Threshold Models: An Application to S&P500 Index Returns," Working Papers w201128, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  57. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Real-time detection of the business cycle using SETAR models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00185372, HAL.
  58. Gabreyohannes, Emmanuel, 2010. "A nonlinear approach to modelling the residential electricity consumption in Ethiopia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 515-523, May.
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