Monetary Transmission to UK Retail Mortgage Rates before and after August 2007
This paper investigates the transmission from UK policy and a range of wholesale money market rates to retail mortgage rates using the long-run estimator proposed by Phillips and Loretan (1991), with a single-equation error correction model (SEECM) framework, from 1995 to 2009. I document the economy-wide effect of the financial market turmoil since August 2007, and show how this has altered long- and short-term relationships. In the long-run there is evidence of a contrast between the discounted mortgage rates that banks may use to initially attract customers, and standard variable rates, with pass-through complete for the former but not for the latter. For fixed rate mortgages, pass-through is generally complete. Since the crisis, for eight of the seventeen estimated relationships I find strong evidence in the long-run of both a significant jump in equilibrium spreads, and a fall in pass-through, whilst in the short-run there is a considerable weakening of the process that re-adjusts retail rates back towards their equilibrium with the money market. Although I do not find strong statistical evidence for an asymmetric re-adjustment process before August 2007, retail mortgage rates generally take considerably longer to move back towards their equilibrium with wholesale rates during times when they are relatively expensive. These results add to previous studies by showing that the UK retail banking sector is imperfectly competitive at the aggregate level, and also suggest that discounted rates are used as a highly competitive loss-leader product.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Streatham Court, Rennes Drive, Exeter EX4 4PU|
Phone: (01392) 263218
Fax: (01392) 263242
Web page: http://business-school.exeter.ac.uk/about/departments/economics/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, December.
- Ying Liu, 2001. "Modelling Mortgage Rate Changes with a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model," Staff Working Papers 01-23, Bank of Canada.
- Meredith J. Beechey & Erik Hjalmarsson & Par Osterholm, 2008.
"Testing the expectations hypothesis when interest rates are near integrated,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
953, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Beechey, Meredith & Hjalmarsson, Erik & sterholm, Pr, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis when interest rates are near integrated," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 934-943, May.
- Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & Peter Howells, 2002. "Central Banks and Market Interest Rates," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 24(4), pages 569-585, July.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991.
"Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
- Spencer Dale & Andrew Haldane, 1993.
"Interest rate control in a model of monetary policy,"
Bank of England working papers
17, Bank of England.
- Dale, Spencer & Haldane, Andrew G, 1998. "Interest Rate Control in a Model of Monetary Policy," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(3), pages 354-75, June.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- In Choi & Eiji Kurozumi, 2008.
"Model Selection Criteria for the Leads-and-Lags Cointegrating Regression,"
0801, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University, revised Aug 2009.
- Choi, In & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2012. "Model selection criteria for the leads-and-lags cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 224-238.
- Choi, In & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2008. "Model Selection Criteria for the Leads-and-Lags Cointegrating Regression," CCES Discussion Paper Series 6, Center for Research on Contemporary Economic Systems, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
- In Choi & Eiji Kurozumi, 2008. "Model Selection Criteria for the Leads-and-Lags Cointegrating Regression," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-006, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999.
"A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-41, March-Apr.
- Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1996. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical Setar Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 464, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Buiter, Willem H., 2007. "Lessons from the 2007 Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 6596, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Peel, David & Davidson, James, 1998. "A non-linear error correction mechanism based on the bilinear model1," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 165-170, February.
- Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "Data Dependent Rules For Selection Of The Number Of Leads And Lags In The Dynamic Ols Cointegrating Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(05), pages 1425-1441, October.
- Liu, Ming-Hua & Margaritis, Dimitri & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2008. "Monetary policy transparency and pass-through of retail interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 501-511, April.
- Boris Hofmann & Paul Mizen, 2004. "Interest Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Transmission: Evidence from Individual Financial Institutions' Retail Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 99-123, 02.
- Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:exe:wpaper:1307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carlos Cortinhas)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.