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Monetary Transmission to UK Retail Mortgage Rates before and after August 2007

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  • Jack R. Rogers

    (Department of Economics, University of Exeter)

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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the transmission from UK policy and a range of wholesale money market rates to retail mortgage rates using the long-run estimator proposed by Phillips and Loretan (1991), with a single-equation error correction model (SEECM) framework, from 1995 to 2009. I document the economy-wide effect of the financial market turmoil since August 2007, and show how this has altered long- and short-term relationships. In the long-run there is evidence of a contrast between the discounted mortgage rates that banks may use to initially attract customers, and standard variable rates, with pass-through complete for the former but not for the latter. For fixed rate mortgages, pass-through is generally complete. Since the crisis, for eight of the seventeen estimated relationships I find strong evidence in the long-run of both a significant jump in equilibrium spreads, and a fall in pass-through, whilst in the short-run there is a considerable weakening of the process that re-adjusts retail rates back towards their equilibrium with the money market. Although I do not find strong statistical evidence for an asymmetric re-adjustment process before August 2007, retail mortgage rates generally take considerably longer to move back towards their equilibrium with wholesale rates during times when they are relatively expensive. These results add to previous studies by showing that the UK retail banking sector is imperfectly competitive at the aggregate level, and also suggest that discounted rates are used as a highly competitive loss-leader product.

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    File URL: http://people.exeter.ac.uk/cc371/RePEc/dpapers/DP1307.pdf
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    Paper provided by Exeter University, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 1307.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:exe:wpaper:1307
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    Web page: http://business-school.exeter.ac.uk/about/departments/economics/
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    Keywords: Mortgage Rates; Monetary Transmission; Error Correction Model.;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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    1. Buiter, Willem H., 2007. "Lessons from the 2007 Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 6596, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    7. Choi, In & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2008. "Model Selection Criteria for the Leads-and-Lags Cointegrating Regression," CCES Discussion Paper Series 6, Center for Research on Contemporary Economic Systems, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Spencer Dale & Andrew Haldane, 1993. "Interest rate control in a model of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 17, Bank of England.
    9. Peel, David & Davidson, James, 1998. "A non-linear error correction mechanism based on the bilinear model1," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 165-170, February.
    10. Ying Liu, 2001. "Modelling Mortgage Rate Changes with a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model," Working Papers 01-23, Bank of Canada.
    11. Beechey, Meredith & Hjalmarsson, Erik & sterholm, Pr, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis when interest rates are near integrated," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 934-943, May.
    12. Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1989. "Estimating Long Run Economic Equilibria," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 928, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Liu, Ming-Hua & Margaritis, Dimitri & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2008. "Monetary policy transparency and pass-through of retail interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 501-511, April.
    14. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    15. Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & Peter Howells, 2002. "Central Banks and Market Interest Rates," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 24(4), pages 569-585, July.
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