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Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis

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  1. Kleijnen, Jack P. C., 1995. "Verification and validation of simulation models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 145-162, April.
  2. Marchau, Vincent & Walker, Warren & van Duin, Ron, 2008. "An adaptive approach to implementing innovative urban transport solutions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 405-412, November.
  3. Eker, Sibel & van Daalen, Els, 2015. "A model-based analysis of biomethane production in the Netherlands and the effectiveness of the subsidization policy under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 178-196.
  4. Schubert, Johan & Moradi, Farshad & Asadi, Hirad & Luotsinen, Linus & Sjöberg, Eric & Hörling, Pontus & Linderhed, Anna & Oskarsson, Daniel, 2015. "Simulation-based decision support for evaluating operational plans," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 36-56.
  5. John H. Miller, 1998. "Active Nonlinear Tests (ANTs) of Complex Simulation Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(6), pages 820-830, June.
  6. Erik Pruyt & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2014. "Radicalization under deep uncertainty: a multi-model exploration of activism, extremism, and terrorism," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 30(1-2), pages 1-28, January.
  7. Robalino, David & Lempert, Robert, 2000. "Carrots and sticks for new technology: Abating greenhouse gas emissions in a heterogeneous and uncertain world," MPRA Paper 12002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Peter Bach & Ana Deletic & Christian Urich & Robert Sitzenfrei & Manfred Kleidorfer & Wolfgang Rauch & David McCarthy, 2013. "Modelling Interactions Between Lot-Scale Decentralised Water Infrastructure and Urban Form – a Case Study on Infiltration Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(14), pages 4845-4863, November.
  9. Jan Kwakkel & Gönenç Yücel, 2014. "An Exploratory Analysis of the Dutch Electricity System in Transition," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 5(4), pages 670-685, December.
  10. Kleijnen, J.P.C., 1995. "Sensitivity analysis and related analysis : A survey of statistical techniques," Research Memorandum FEW 706, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  11. Malekpour, Shirin & de Haan, Fjalar J. & Brown, Rebekah R., 2016. "A methodology to enable exploratory thinking in strategic planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 192-202.
  12. Babak Heydari & Michael J. Pennock, 2018. "Guiding the behavior of sociotechnical systems: The role of agent‐based modeling," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(3), pages 210-226, May.
  13. Nicholson, Charles F. & McRoberts, Keenan C. & Öz, Besir Suleyman & Kopainsky, Birgit, 2022. "A dynamic systems analysis of factors affecting success of identity-preserved products: the case of high-oleic soybeans," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 26(1), October.
  14. Steinmann, Patrick & Auping, Willem L. & Kwakkel, Jan H., 2020. "Behavior-based scenario discovery using time series clustering," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  15. Subhadeep & Mukhopadhyay, 2022. "Modelplasticity and Abductive Decision Making," Papers 2203.03040, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
  16. Klaus Keller & Louise I. Miltich & Alexander Robinson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions?," Working Papers 2007.39, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  17. Jan H. Kwakkel & Erik Pruyt, 2015. "Using System Dynamics for Grand Challenges: The ESDMA Approach," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 358-375, May.
  18. Laura Schmitt Olabisi & Ryan Qi Wang & Arika Ligmann-Zielinska, 2015. "Why Don’t More Farmers Go Organic? Using A Stakeholder-Informed Exploratory Agent-Based Model to Represent the Dynamics of Farming Practices in the Philippines," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-24, October.
  19. Noori, Mehdi & Tatari, Omer & Nam, BooHyun & Golestani, Behnam & Greene, James, 2014. "A stochastic optimization approach for the selection of reflective cracking mitigation techniques," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 367-378.
  20. Warren E. Walker & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2013. "Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-25, March.
  21. Jim W. Hall & Robert J. Lempert & Klaus Keller & Andrew Hackbarth & Christophe Mijere & David J. McInerney, 2012. "Robust Climate Policies Under Uncertainty: A Comparison of Robust Decision Making and Info‐Gap Methods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(10), pages 1657-1672, October.
  22. Guido A Veldhuis & Nico M de Reus & Bas MJ Keijser, 2020. "Concept development for comprehensive operations support with modeling and simulation," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 17(1), pages 99-116, January.
  23. Walker, Warren E., 2009. "Does the best practice of rational-style model-based policy analysis already include ethical considerations?," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1051-1062, December.
  24. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2017. "Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 89-109.
  25. Koponen, Kati & Le Net, Elisabeth, 2021. "Towards robust renewable energy investment decisions at the territorial level," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
  26. Jan Kwakkel & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Warren Walker, 2015. "Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 373-386, October.
  27. Moallemi, Enayat A. & de Haan, Fjalar & Kwakkel, Jan & Aye, Lu, 2017. "Narrative-informed exploratory analysis of energy transition pathways: A case study of India's electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 271-287.
  28. John H. Miller, 1996. "Active Nonlinear Tests (ANTs) of Complex Simulation Models," Working Papers 96-03-011, Santa Fe Institute.
  29. Rodríguez-Izquierdo, Emilio & Miquelajauregui, Yosune & Padilla, Pablo & Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A, 2019. "Modelling approach for crafting environmental regulations under deep uncertainty: Whale watching in Ojo de liebre, Mexico," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 408(C), pages 1-1.
  30. Moallemi, Enayat A. & Elsawah, Sondoss & Ryan, Michael J., 2020. "Strengthening ‘good’ modelling practices in robust decision support: A reporting guideline for combining multiple model-based methods," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 3-24.
  31. Evelina Trutnevyte & Céline Guivarch & Robert Lempert & Neil Strachan, 2016. "Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 373-379, April.
  32. Moallemi, Enayat A. & Elsawah, Sondoss & Ryan, Michael J., 2020. "Robust decision making and Epoch–Era analysis: A comparison of two robustness frameworks for decision-making under uncertainty," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  33. Robert Lempert, 2013. "Scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities and robust responses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 627-646, April.
  34. Michael J. Pennock & Douglas A. Bodner, 2020. "A methodology for modeling sociotechnical systems to facilitate exploratory policy analysis," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 409-422, July.
  35. Julie E. Shortridge & Seth D. Guikema, 2016. "Scenario Discovery with Multiple Criteria: An Evaluation of the Robust Decision‐Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(12), pages 2298-2312, December.
  36. Walker, Warren E. & Rahman, S. Adnan & Cave, Jonathan, 2001. "Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 282-289, January.
  37. Pauline Barrieu & Sinclair Desgagn�, 2009. "Economic policy when models disagree," GRI Working Papers 4, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  38. Claralucia Prates Machado & Maria Isabel Wolf Morandi & Miguel Sellitto, 2019. "System Dynamics and Learning Scenarios for Process Improvement and Regional Resilience: A Study in The Footwear Industry of Southern Brazil," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 32(6), pages 663-686, December.
  39. Georgios Tsaples & Jason Papathanasiou & Andreas C. Georgiou, 2022. "An Exploratory DEA and Machine Learning Framework for the Evaluation and Analysis of Sustainability Composite Indicators in the EU," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(13), pages 1-27, June.
  40. B. Gersonius & J. Rijke & R. Ashley & P. Bloemen & E. Kelder & C. Zevenbergen, 2016. "Adaptive Delta Management for flood risk and resilience in Dordrecht, The Netherlands," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 201-216, June.
  41. McJeon, Haewon C. & Clarke, Leon & Kyle, Page & Wise, Marshall & Hackbarth, Andrew & Bryant, Benjamin P. & Lempert, Robert J., 2011. "Technology interactions among low-carbon energy technologies: What can we learn from a large number of scenarios?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 619-631, July.
  42. Luciano Raso & Jan Kwakkel & Jos Timmermans & Geremy Panthou, 2019. "How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 267-283, March.
  43. Noori, Mehdi & Gardner, Stephanie & Tatari, Omer, 2015. "Electric vehicle cost, emissions, and water footprint in the United States: Development of a regional optimization model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 610-625.
  44. Ronald Brunner, 2006. "A Paradigm for Practice," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 39(2), pages 135-167, June.
  45. S Robinson, 2008. "Conceptual modelling for simulation Part I: definition and requirements," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(3), pages 278-290, March.
  46. L. Andrew Bollinger & Chris Davis & Igor Nikolić & Gerard P.J. Dijkema, 2012. "Modeling Metal Flow Systems," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 16(2), pages 176-190, April.
  47. Tian, Qing & Holland, John H. & Brown, Daniel G., 2016. "Social and economic impacts of subsidy policies on rural development in the Poyang Lake Region, China: Insights from an agent-based model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 12-27.
  48. Happe, Kathrin & Balmann, Alfons & Kellermann, Konrad, 2004. "The agricultural policy simulator (AgriPoliS): an agent-based model to study structural change in agriculture (Version 1.0)," IAMO Discussion Papers 71, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
  49. Kwakkel, Jan H. & Pruyt, Erik, 2013. "Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 419-431.
  50. de Wildt, Tristan E. & Boijmans, Anne R. & Chappin, Emile J.L. & Herder, Paulien M., 2021. "An ex ante assessment of value conflicts and social acceptance of sustainable heating systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
  51. Hidayatno, Akhmad & Jafino, Bramka Arga & Setiawan, Andri D. & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu, 2020. "When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  52. Tim Gruchmann & Ani Melkonyan & Klaus Krumme, 2018. "Logistics Business Transformation for Sustainability: Assessing the Role of the Lead Sustainability Service Provider (6PL)," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-19, October.
  53. Jan Kwakkel & Willem Auping, 2021. "Reaction: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock (2021)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.
  54. Pauline Barrieu & Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, 2009. "Economic Policy when Models Disagree," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-03, CIRANO.
  55. Seyed Ahmad Reza Mir Mohammadi Kooshknow & Rob den Exter & Franco Ruzzenenti, 2020. "An Exploratory Agent-Based Modeling Analysis Approach to Test Business Models for Electricity Storage," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-14, April.
  56. Juliana Zapata Riveros & Matthias Speich & Mirjam West & Silvia Ulli-Beer, 2021. "Combining Business Model Innovation and Model-Based Analysis to Tackle the Deep Uncertainty of Societal Transitions—A Case Study on Industrial Electrification and Power Grid Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-29, June.
  57. Máté Hegyháti & Krisztián Attila Bakon & Tibor Holczinger, 2023. "Optimization with uncertainties: a scheduling example," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 31(4), pages 1239-1263, December.
  58. Timothy Wojan & Anil Rupasingha, 2001. "Crisis as Opportunity: Local Context, Adaptive Agents and the Possibilities of Rural Development," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 141-152.
  59. Christine Chou & Steven O. Kimbrough, 2016. "An agent-based model of organizational ambidexterity decisions and strategies in new product development," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 4-46, March.
  60. Marjolijn Haasnoot & Hans Middelkoop & Astrid Offermans & Eelco Beek & Willem Deursen, 2012. "Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 795-819, December.
  61. David C. Lane & Özge Pala & Yaman Barlas & Willem L. Auping & Erik Pruyt & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2015. "Societal Ageing in the Netherlands: A Robust System Dynamics Approach," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 485-501, July.
  62. Robert J. Lempert & David G. Groves & Steven W. Popper & Steve C. Bankes, 2006. "A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 514-528, April.
  63. Altay, Nezih & Green III, Walter G., 2006. "OR/MS research in disaster operations management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(1), pages 475-493, November.
  64. Julia Reis & Julie Shortridge, 2020. "Impact of Uncertainty Parameter Distribution on Robust Decision Making Outcomes for Climate Change Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 494-511, March.
  65. Luciano Raso & Jan Kwakkel & Jos Timmermans, 2019. "Assessing the Capacity of Adaptive Policy Pathways to Adapt on Time by Mapping Trigger Values to Their Outcomes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, March.
  66. Erik Pruyt & Willem L. Auping & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2015. "Ebola in West Africa: Model-Based Exploration of Social Psychological Effects and Interventions," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 2-14, January.
  67. Lempert Robert J., 2014. "Embedding (some) benefit-cost concepts into decision support processes with deep uncertainty," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 487-514, December.
  68. Adam D. McCurdy & William R. Travis, 2017. "Simulated climate adaptation in stormwater systems: evaluating the efficiency of adaptation strategies," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 214-229, June.
  69. Noori, Mehdi & Tatari, Omer, 2016. "Development of an agent-based model for regional market penetration projections of electric vehicles in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 215-230.
  70. Shu-Heng Chen & Connie Houning Wang & Weikai Chen, 2017. "Matching Impacts of School Admission Mechanisms: An Agent-Based Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 217-241, March.
  71. Auping, Willem L. & Pruyt, Erik & de Jong, Sijbren & Kwakkel, Jan H., 2016. "The geopolitical impact of the shale revolution: Exploring consequences on energy prices and rentier states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 390-399.
  72. Erik Pruyt & Tushith Islam, 2015. "On generating and exploring the behavior space of complex models," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 31(4), pages 220-249, October.
  73. Hamarat, Caner & Kwakkel, Jan H. & Pruyt, Erik, 2013. "Adaptive Robust Design under deep uncertainty," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 408-418.
  74. Suchat Tachaudomdach & Auttawit Upayokin & Nopadon Kronprasert & Kriangkrai Arunotayanun, 2021. "Quantifying Road-Network Robustness toward Flood-Resilient Transportation Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, March.
  75. Bollinger, L.A. & Davis, C.B. & Evins, R. & Chappin, E.J.L. & Nikolic, I., 2018. "Multi-model ecologies for shaping future energy systems: Design patterns and development paths," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3441-3451.
  76. Kahagalage, Sanath Darshana & Turan, Hasan Hüseyin & Elsawah, Sondoss & Gary, Michael Shayne, 2024. "Exploratory modelling and analysis to support decision-making under deep uncertainty: A case study from defence resource planning and asset management," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
  77. Gritsevskyi, Andrii & Nakicenovi, Nebojsa, 2000. "Modeling uncertainty of induced technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(13), pages 907-921, November.
  78. Hackney, Jeremy & Marchal, Fabrice, 2011. "A coupled multi-agent microsimulation of social interactions and transportation behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 296-309, May.
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