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Modelling approach for crafting environmental regulations under deep uncertainty: Whale watching in Ojo de liebre, Mexico

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  • Rodríguez-Izquierdo, Emilio
  • Miquelajauregui, Yosune
  • Padilla, Pablo
  • Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A

Abstract

Policy-making to protect threatened species implies dealing with uncertainty and ignorance. Conservation management of the Eastern gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) population through the regulation of whale watching in the lagoon Ojo de Liebre, Mexico, is a useful example of policy-making challenged by lack of scientific knowledge regarding the negative long-term effects of whale watching. We present a pragmatic approach to provide Mexican authorities the technical information they need to justify the establishment of a maximum number of boats under conditions of deep uncertainty. Operationally, our approach combines system dynamics modelling, to simulate the boats’ impact on the breeding habitat, with ecological risk assessment, to determine the probability of crossing a critical ecological threshold, which is associated to a risk of severely reducing the gray whale abundance in the lagoon. Thus, our approach addresses the issue of establishing a legal maximum number of boats to protect threatened species.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodríguez-Izquierdo, Emilio & Miquelajauregui, Yosune & Padilla, Pablo & Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A, 2019. "Modelling approach for crafting environmental regulations under deep uncertainty: Whale watching in Ojo de liebre, Mexico," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 408(C), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:408:y:2019:i:c:8
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108731
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    1. Pirotta, Enrico & New, Leslie & Harwood, John & Lusseau, David, 2014. "Activities, motivations and disturbance: An agent-based model of bottlenose dolphin behavioral dynamics and interactions with tourism in Doubtful Sound, New Zealand," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 282(C), pages 44-58.
    2. Steve Bankes, 1993. "Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 41(3), pages 435-449, June.
    3. Hallegatte, Stephane & Shah, Ankur & Lempert, Robert & Brown, Casey & Gill, Stuart, 2012. "Investment decision making under deep uncertainty -- application to climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6193, The World Bank.
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    1. Kuiper, Jan Jurjen & Carpenter-Urquhart, Liam & Berbés-Blázquez, Marta & Rozas, Elisa Oteros & Fredström, Linna & Psiuk, Kinga & Savu, Codruța & Kautsky, Robert & Guerry, Anne & Carpenter, Stephen R., 2023. "Biosphere Futures: a database of social-ecological scenarios," SocArXiv v4ukj, Center for Open Science.

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