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Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration

Author

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  • Evelina Trutnevyte

    (ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich], UCL - University College London [UCL])

  • Céline Guivarch

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées)

  • Robert Lempert

    (Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition - Rand Corporation)

  • Neil Strachan

    (UCL - University College London [UCL])

Abstract

Scenarios are widely used for long-term climate and energy analysis. However, in the great majority of studies with a handful of scenarios or scenario categories, both scenario developers and users capture only a subset of future uncertainties. We propose three focal points for reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration: (1) to ensure that scenario developers embrace an increased space of multidimensional uncertainties, (2) to facilitate the process of scenario users capturing this space, and (3) to evaluate and iteratively revise the improvement progress. If these focal points are adopted, scenario studies in climate and energy analysis shall not simply stop after producing scenarios, but shall continue with techniques to facilitate elicitation of user-specific insights, as well as evaluation of both scenarios and scenario techniques

Suggested Citation

  • Evelina Trutnevyte & Céline Guivarch & Robert Lempert & Neil Strachan, 2016. "Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration," Post-Print halshs-01290284, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01290284
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1585-x
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01290284v1
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