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Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Bolger, Fergus & Wright, George, 2017. "Use of expert knowledge to anticipate the future: Issues, analysis and directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 230-243.
  2. repec:eee:proeco:v:191:y:2017:i:c:p:85-96 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Lin, Vera Shanshan & Goodwin, Paul & Song, Haiyan, 2014. "Accuracy and bias of experts’ adjusted forecasts," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 156-174.
  4. Syntetos, Aris A. & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Boylan, John E., 2010. "Judging the judges through accuracy-implication metrics: The case of inventory forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 134-143, January.
  5. Theocharis, Zoe & Harvey, Nigel, 2016. "Order effects in judgmental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 44-60.
  6. Önkal, Dilek & Lawrence, Michael & Zeynep SayIm, K., 2011. "Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 50-68, January.
  7. Trapero, Juan R. & Pedregal, Diego J. & Fildes, R. & Kourentzes, N., 2013. "Analysis of judgmental adjustments in the presence of promotions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 234-243.
  8. Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2014. "Do Experts’ SKU Forecasts Improve after Feedback?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 69-79, January.
  9. Madhukar Nagare & Pankaj Dutta & Naoufel Cheikhrouhou, 2016. "Optimal ordering policy for newsvendor models with bidirectional changes in demand using expert judgment," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 53(3), pages 620-647, September.
  10. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:60:y:2009:i:1:d:10.1057_jors.2008.173 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Spithourakis, Georgios P. & Petropoulos, Fotios & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2015. "Amplifying the learning effects via a Forecasting and Foresight Support System," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 20-32.
  12. Davydenko, Andrey & Fildes, Robert, 2013. "Measuring forecasting accuracy: The case of judgmental adjustments to SKU-level demand forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 510-522.
  13. Franses, Philip Hans & Kranendonk, Henk C. & Lanser, Debby, 2011. "One model and various experts: Evaluating Dutch macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 482-495, April.
  14. Danese, Pamela & Kalchschmidt, Matteo, 2011. "The impact of forecasting on companies' performance: Analysis in a multivariate setting," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 458-469, September.
  15. Niematallah Elamin & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2017. "Integrating judgment in statistical demand forecasting: An approach to confront uncertainty," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 17-20, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  16. Philip Hans Franses & Rianne Legerstee & Richard Paap, 2017. "Estimating loss functions of experts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 386-396, January.
  17. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2009. "Forecasting Sales," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  18. Asimakopoulos, Stavros & Dix, Alan, 2013. "Forecasting support systems technologies-in-practice: A model of adoption and use for product forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 322-336.
  19. Goodwin, Paul & Sinan Gönül, M. & Önkal, Dilek, 2013. "Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 354-366.
  20. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
  21. Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses & Richard Paap, 2011. "Do Experts incorporate Statistical Model Forecasts and should they?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-141/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  22. Babai, Zied & Boylan, John E. & Kolassa, Stephan & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2016. "Supply chain forecasting: Theory, practice, their gap and the futureAuthor-Name: Syntetos, Aris A," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 1-26.
  23. Thomson, Mary E. & Pollock, Andrew C. & Gönül, M. Sinan & Önkal, Dilek, 2013. "Effects of trend strength and direction on performance and consistency in judgmental exchange rate forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 337-353.
  24. Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Onkal, Dilek, 2015. "Information use in supply chain forecasting," MPRA Paper 66034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. Wan, Xiang & Sanders, Nadia R., 2017. "The negative impact of product variety: Forecast bias, inventory levels, and the role of vertical integration," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 123-131.
  26. repec:eee:ejores:v:266:y:2018:i:2:p:395-414 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nowotarski, Jakub, 2016. "A hybrid model for GEFCom2014 probabilistic electricity price forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1051-1056.
  28. Goodwin, Paul & Meeran, Sheik & Dyussekeneva, Karima, 2014. "The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1082-1097.
  29. Önkal, Dilek & Lawrence, Michael & Zeynep Sayım, K., 2011. "Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 50-68.
  30. Chang, Chia Lin & Franses, Philip Hans & Mcaleer, Michael, 2012. "Evaluating Individual and Mean Non-Replicable Forecasts," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 22-43, September.
  31. Alvarado-Valencia, Jorge & Barrero, Lope H. & Önkal, Dilek & Dennerlein, Jack T., 2017. "Expertise, credibility of system forecasts and integration methods in judgmental demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 298-313.
  32. repec:eee:ejores:v:266:y:2018:i:1:p:238-246 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2010. "Decomposing bias in expert forecast," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-26, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  34. repec:eee:ejores:v:264:y:2018:i:2:p:558-569 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. Önkal, Dilek & Zeynep Sayım, K. & Lawrence, Michael, 2012. "Wisdom of group forecasts: Does role-playing play a role?," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 693-702.
  36. Goodwin, Paul, 2015. "When simple alternatives to Bayes formula work well: Reducing the cognitive load when updating probability forecasts," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1686-1691.
  37. Paul Goodwin & Dilek Önkal & Herman O. Stekler, 2017. "What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk," Working Papers 2017-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  38. Barrow, Devon K., 2016. "Forecasting intraday call arrivals using the seasonal moving average method," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 6088-6096.
  39. Song, Haiyan & Gao, Bastian Z. & Lin, Vera S., 2013. "Combining statistical and judgmental forecasts via a web-based tourism demand forecasting system," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 295-310.
  40. Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
  41. Danese, Pamela & Kalchschmidt, Matteo, 2011. "The role of the forecasting process in improving forecast accuracy and operational performance," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 204-214, May.
  42. Huang, Tao & Fildes, Robert & Soopramanien, Didier, 2014. "The value of competitive information in forecasting FMCG retail product sales and the variable selection problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(2), pages 738-748.
  43. Goodwin, Paul, 2015. "Is a more liberal approach to conservatism needed in forecasting?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1753-1754.
  44. Franses, Philip Hans & Legerstee, Rianne, 2013. "Do statistical forecasting models for SKU-level data benefit from including past expert knowledge?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 80-87.
  45. Chang, Chia-Lin & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2011. "How accurate are government forecasts of economic fundamentals? The case of Taiwan," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1066-1075, October.
  46. Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer & Rianne Legerstee, 2014. "Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Concise Review Of Some Recent Developments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 195-208, April.
  47. Petropoulos, Fotios & Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert, 2017. "Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 314-324.
  48. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:3:p:652-661 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. Eksoz, Can & Mansouri, S. Afshin & Bourlakis, Michael, 2014. "Collaborative forecasting in the food supply chain: A conceptual framework," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 120-135.
  50. Franses, Philip Hans, 2013. "Improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-8.
  51. Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert & Lawrence, Michael & Stephens, Greg, 2011. "Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 242-253, June.
  52. Volha Audzei, 2016. "Confidence Cycles and Liquidity Hoarding," Working Papers 2016/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  53. repec:bla:stratm:v:38:y:2017:i:3:p:802-811 is not listed on IDEAS
  54. Petropoulos, Fotios & Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul, 2016. "Do ‘big losses’ in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts’ behaviour?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 842-852.
  55. Wright, George & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 813-825, October.
  56. Mirko Kremer & Brent Moritz & Enno Siemsen, 2011. "Demand Forecasting Behavior: System Neglect and Change Detection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(10), pages 1827-1843, October.
  57. Önkal, Dilek & Sinan Gönül, M. & Goodwin, Paul & Thomson, Mary & Öz, Esra, 2017. "Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: Users’ reactions to presumed vs. experienced credibility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 280-297.
  58. Ma, Shaohui & Fildes, Robert & Huang, Tao, 2016. "Demand forecasting with high dimensional data: The case of SKU retail sales forecasting with intra- and inter-category promotional information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(1), pages 245-257.
  59. Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2012. "Managing Sales Forecasters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-131/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  60. Fildes, Robert, 2015. "Forecasters and rationality—A comment on Fritsche et al., Forecasting the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality and forecaster herding," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 140-143.
  61. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Maassen, N.R., 2015. "Consensus forecasters: How good are they individually and why?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-21, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  62. Chang, C-L. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & McAleer, M.J., 2009. "How Accurate are Government Forecast of Economic Fundamentals?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-09, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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