What if you are not Bayesian? The consequences for decisions involving risk
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus, 1992. "Exploring judgemental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-26, June.
- Grether, David M., 1992.
"Testing bayes rule and the representativeness heuristic: Some experimental evidence,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 31-57, January.
- Grether, David M., 1990. "Testing Bayes Rule and the Representativeness Heuristic: Some Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 724, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Wei Pan, 2001. "Akaike's Information Criterion in Generalized Estimating Equations," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(1), pages 120-125, March.
- Holt, Charles A. & Smith, Angela M., 2009. "An update on Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 125-134, February.
- Goodwin, Paul, 2015. "When simple alternatives to Bayes formula work well: Reducing the cognitive load when updating probability forecasts," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1686-1691.
- M. H. Schnader & H. O. Stekler, 1998. "Sources of turning point forecast errors," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(8), pages 519-521.
- repec:bla:joares:v:20:y:1982:i:2:p:711-723 is not listed on IDEAS
- Goodwin, Paul, 2005. "Providing support for decisions based on time series information under conditions of asymmetric loss," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 388-402, June.
- Gary Charness & Edi Karni & Dan Levin, 2007.
"Individual and group decision making under risk: An experimental study of Bayesian updating and violations of first-order stochastic dominance,"
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,
Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 129-148, October.
- Charness, Gary B & Karni, Edi, 2007. "Individual and Group Decision Making Under Risk: An Experimental Study of Bayesian Updating and Violations of First-order Stochastic Dominance," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt4gr7j8z8, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
- Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Lawrence, Michael & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2009. "Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-23.
- F. Hutton Barron & Bruce E. Barrett, 1996. "Decision Quality Using Ranked Attribute Weights," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(11), pages 1515-1523, November.
More about this item
Keywordsdecision processes; Bayes’ theorem; judgmental biases; risk;
NEP fieldsThis paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
StatisticsAccess and download statistics
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2017-003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tara M. Sinclair). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/degwuus.html .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.