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Geopolitical risk uncertainty and oil future volatility: Evidence from MIDAS models

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Cited by:

  1. Mengxi He & Xianfeng Hao & Yaojie Zhang & Fanyi Meng, 2021. "Forecasting stock return volatility using a robust regression model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1463-1478, December.
  2. Yan, Xiang & Bai, Jiancheng & Li, Xiafei & Chen, Zhonglu, 2022. "Can dimensional reduction technology make better use of the information of uncertainty indices when predicting volatility of Chinese crude oil futures?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  3. Daxuan Cheng & Yin Liao & Zheyao Pan, 2023. "The geopolitical risk premium in the commodity futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(8), pages 1069-1090, August.
  4. Qiang Wang & Fen Ren & Rongrong Li, 2024. "Geopolitics and energy security: a comprehensive exploration of evolution, collaborations, and future directions," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, December.
  5. Shafiee, Mohammad & Zare-Mehrjerdi, Yahia & Govindan, Kannan & Dastgoshade, Sohaib, 2022. "A causality analysis of risks to perishable product supply chain networks during the COVID-19 outbreak era: An extended DEMATEL method under Pythagorean fuzzy environment," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
  6. Guo, Lili & Huang, Xinya & Li, Yanjiao & Li, Houjian, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil futures price using machine learning methods: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
  7. Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq, 2021. "News-based equity market uncertainty and crude oil volatility," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
  8. Xu, Yan & Liu, Tianli & Du, Pei, 2024. "Volatility forecasting of crude oil futures based on Bi-LSTM-Attention model: The dynamic role of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  9. Rao, Amar & Sharma, Gagan Deep & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hossain, Mohammad Razib & Dev, Dhairya, 2025. "Crude oil Price forecasting: Leveraging machine learning for global economic stability," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
  10. Ivanovski, Kris & Hailemariam, Abebe, 2022. "Time-varying geopolitical risk and oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 206-221.
  11. Li, Beibei & Chen, Yiming & Wu, Haipeng & Mao, Xuefeng, 2025. "Macroeconomics, geopolitical risk, and resource commodity price bubbles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
  12. Naif Alsagr & Stefan F. Van Hemmen Almazor, 2020. "Oil Rent, Geopolitical Risk and Banking Sector Performance," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 305-314.
  13. Le, Thanh Ha, 2023. "Quantile time-frequency connectedness between cryptocurrency volatility and renewable energy volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic and Ukraine-Russia conflicts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 613-625.
  14. Oktay Ozkan & Asima Saleem & Nasir Khan & Andrew Adewale Alola, 2025. "Global impact of geopolitical oil price uncertainty and associated commodity prices on clean energy stocks," Energy & Environment, , vol. 36(7), pages 3501-3526, November.
  15. Lin, Boqiang & Wang, You, 2025. "Climate change and China's food security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
  16. Liang, Qian & Lin, Qingyuan & Guo, Mengzhuo & Lu, Quanying & Zhang, Dayong, 2025. "Forecasting crude oil prices: A Gated Recurrent Unit-based nonlinear Granger Causality model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  17. Fen Li & Zhehao Huang & Junhao Zhong & Khaldoon Albitar, 2020. "Do Tense Geopolitical Factors Drive Crude Oil Prices?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-20, August.
  18. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil price volatility out-of-sample using news-based geopolitical risk index: What forms of nonlinearity help improve forecast accuracy the most?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
  19. Li, Yingli & Huang, Jianbai & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers of geopolitical risks and gold prices: New evidence from 18 emerging economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  20. Siyue Zheng & Mingdong Xu & Min Zhu, 2025. "Generalized Modeling of Oil Futures Volatility Through Uncertainty Indicator Selection: A GARCH–MIDAS–AES Framework," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(9), pages 1182-1201, September.
  21. Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Jianqiong & Dong, Dayong, 2022. "Singlehanded or joint race? Stock market volatility prediction," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 734-754.
  22. Yiming, Wang & Xun, Liu & Umair, Muhammad & Aizhan, Assilova, 2024. "COVID-19 and the transformation of emerging economies: Financialization, green bonds, and stock market volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  23. Salman, Muhammad, 2025. "Germany’s energy security strategy in times of turmoil: The role of AI-driven energy systems and environmental policy in the Russian gas exit," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
  24. Xu, Zhiwei & Gan, Shiqi & Hua, Xia & Xiong, Yujie, 2024. "Can the sentiment of the official media predict the return volatility of the Chinese crude oil futures?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  25. Liu, Jinpei & Zhao, Xiaoman & Luo, Rui & Tao, Zhifu, 2024. "A novel link prediction model for interval-valued crude oil prices based on complex network and multi-source information," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PB).
  26. Qian, Lihua & Zeng, Qing & Li, Tao, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and oil price volatility: Evidence from Markov-switching model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 29-38.
  27. Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira & Haider Ali & Ana Ercília José, 2022. "Application of Multifractal Analysis in Estimating the Reaction of Energy Markets to Geopolitical Acts and Threats," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, May.
  28. Wang, Kai-Hua & Zhao, Yan-Xin & Su, Yun Hsuan & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "Energy security and CO2 emissions: New evidence from time-varying and quantile-varying aspects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
  29. Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Jiqian & Wang, Jianqiong, 2020. "Examining the predictive information of CBOE OVX on China’s oil futures volatility: Evidence from MS-MIDAS models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
  30. Ma, Feng & Lu, Fei & Tao, Ying, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and excess stock returns predictability: New evidence from a century of data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  31. Almeida, Dora & Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Aslam, Faheem, 2025. "Exploring the connection between geopolitical risks and energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  32. Gu, Xin & Zhu, Zixiang & Yu, Minli, 2021. "The macro effects of GPR and EPU indexes over the global oil market—Are the two types of uncertainty shock alike?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  33. Ngo, Vu Minh & Nguyen, Phuc Van & Hoang, Yen Hai, 2024. "The impacts of geopolitical risks on gold, oil and financial reserve management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  34. Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias & Maiani, Stefano & Nguyen, Tam Huu, 2025. "Predictive power of oil prices on CDS spread dynamics of oil-producing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  35. Liu, Chao & Xu, Jiahui, 2024. "Risk spillover effects of new global energy listed companies from the time-frequency perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
  36. Yan, Wan-Lin & (Wai Kong) Cheung, Adrian & Yuan, Jiawei, 2026. "The impact of green cryptocurrency and nongreen cryptocurrency on energy markets: Evidence from geopolitical risk and higher-order moment connectedness," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  37. Wang, Jiqian & Lu, Xinjie & He, Feng & Ma, Feng, 2020. "Which popular predictor is more useful to forecast international stock markets during the coronavirus pandemic: VIX vs EPU?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  38. Wang, Zhe & Teng, Yin-Pei & Wu, Shuzhao & Liu, Yuxiang & Liu, Xianchang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk, financial system and natural resources extraction: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  39. Aristogenis Lazos & Laurent Pataillot, 2026. "Does Geopolitical Risk Matter for the Success of Initial Coin Offerings?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 2754-2779, April.
  40. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2024. "Sectoral responses to economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in the US stock market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  41. Zhang, Jixiang & Zeng, Qing & Bouri, Elie & Gozgor, Giray, 2025. "Newly-constructed Chinese geopolitical risk index and trade stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  42. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Tang, Huayun & Li, Ding, 2022. "The roles of oil shocks and geopolitical uncertainties on China’s green bond returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 494-505.
  43. Niu, Zibo & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Hongwei, 2022. "The role of uncertainty measures in volatility forecasting of the crude oil futures market before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  44. Jiaying Peng & Zhenghui Li & Benjamin M. Drakeford, 2020. "Dynamic Characteristics of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation—From the Perspective of Crude Oil Price Influence Mechanism," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
  45. Oana Panazan & Catalin Gheorghe, 2024. "Impact of Geopolitical Risk on G7 Financial Markets: A Comparative Wavelet Analysis between 2014 and 2022," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-22, January.
  46. Saadaoui, Jamel & Smyth, Russell & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2025. "Ensuring the security of the clean energy transition: Examining the impact of geopolitical risk on the price of critical minerals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
  47. Khan, Nasir & Saleem, Asima & Ozkan, Oktay, 2023. "Do geopolitical oil price risk influence stock market returns and volatility of Pakistan: Evidence from novel non-parametric quantile causality approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  48. Ke Yang & Xuebao Yin & Fengping Tian, 2026. "Forecasting Crude Oil Volatility With Geopolitical Risk: The RSV–MIDAS–GPR Model and Its Economic Value," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(5), pages 824-842, May.
  49. S, Aiswarya & Muralikrishna, Muthumeenakshi, . "Time-frequency analysis of geopolitical risk and food commodity market: a wavelet based investigation," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 11(2).
  50. Xiao, Jihong & Wang, Yudong & Wen, Danyan, 2023. "The predictive effect of risk aversion on oil returns under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  51. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Ali Yavuz Polat & Hasan Tekin & Ahmet Semih Tunalı, 2023. "The Ascent of Geopolitics: Scientometric Analysis and Ramifications of Geopolitical Risk," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 791-809, August.
  52. Zheng, Deyuan & Zhao, Chunguang & Hu, Jiaying, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risk on the volatility of natural resource commodity futures prices in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  53. Athanasios Triantafyllou & Nikolaos Vlastakis & Neil Kellard, 2025. "Forecasting Oil Price Volatility: Does Oil Price Uncertainty Matter?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(7), pages 817-830, July.
  54. Osama D. Sweidan, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk and Income Inequality: Evidence from the US Economy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 575-597, September.
  55. Shahzad, Umer & Mohammed, Kamel Si & Tiwari, Sunil & Nakonieczny, Joanna & Nesterowicz, Renata, 2023. "Connectedness between geopolitical risk, financial instability indices and precious metals markets: Novel findings from Russia Ukraine conflict perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  56. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "An interesting finding about the ability of geopolitical risk to forecast aggregate equity return volatility out-of-sample," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
  57. Ding, Lili & Zhao, Haoran & Zhang, Rui, 2024. "Predicting multi-frequency crude oil price dynamics: Based on MIDAS and STL methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
  58. Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Safe Havens, Machine Learning, and the Sources of Geopolitical Risk: A Forecasting Analysis Using Over a Century of Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(1), pages 487-513, July.
  59. Guillaume Bagnarosa & Mark Cummins & Michael Dowling & Fearghal Kearney, 2022. "Commodity risk in European dairy firms," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(1), pages 151-181.
  60. Guo, Xiaozhu & Huang, Dengshi & Li, Xiafei & Liang, Chao, 2023. "Are categorical EPU indices predictable for carbon futures volatility? Evidence from the machine learning method," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 672-693.
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  62. Zhang, Jilu & Guxue, Kaicheng, 2024. "Fostering sustainability: Exploring natural resources, mineral resources, and their impact on carbon reduction, economic growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
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