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More Attention to Macroeconomic Risks and Better Forecasting of Energy Volatility

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  • Zhiping Zhou
  • Kai Wang

Abstract

This paper introduces a new energy volatility‐aligned macroeconomic attention index, constructed via partial least squares to filter noise from existing macroeconomic attention proxies and enhance forecasting accuracy. The proposed index demonstrates robust in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictive power for energy commodity volatility—across the energy index and its six components—over horizons up to 6 months. This predictability remains statistically significant after extensive robustness checks. Furthermore, the index delivers economically meaningful utility gains for mean–variance investors. Overall, this study sheds new light on energy commodity volatility's prediction from the perspective of macroeconomic fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhiping Zhou & Kai Wang, 2026. "More Attention to Macroeconomic Risks and Better Forecasting of Energy Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(4), pages 738-753, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:46:y:2026:i:4:p:738-753
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.70079
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lin, Qi, 2018. "Technical analysis and stock return predictability: An aligned approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 103-123.
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