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Predicting multi-frequency crude oil price dynamics: Based on MIDAS and STL methods

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  • Ding, Lili
  • Zhao, Haoran
  • Zhang, Rui

Abstract

Accurate prediction of crude oil prices is important for national energy security and socioeconomic development. Research on crude oil price forecasting has primarily focused on the overall price, overlooking the differentiated investment needs of different entities. To solve this problem, we introduce the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) method into the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) model. This enables us to more accurately analyze the predictive capability of predictors for crude oil prices at different frequencies. Selected predictors include the Dow Jones Index, US Dollar exchange rate, economic policy uncertainty, related crude oil and energy prices, carbon asset prices, and investor attention. Empirical results indicate that these predictors significantly enhance the forecasting accuracy across all components, with the strongest impact in the trend component. Interestingly, a lag effect is observed in the predictors' impact on the seasonal and residual components, but not on the trend component. Moreover, we calculate the duration of each predictor's effectiveness for different components of crude oil prices, distinguishing short-term and long-term effective predictors. This research offers novel insights into the design of crude oil price forecasting models, which is crucial for enhancing investor returns and maintaining stability in the energy market.

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  • Ding, Lili & Zhao, Haoran & Zhang, Rui, 2024. "Predicting multi-frequency crude oil price dynamics: Based on MIDAS and STL methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:313:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224037812
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.134003
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