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When Optimal Choices Feel Wrong: A Laboratory Study of Bayesian Updating, Complexity, and Affect

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Cited by:

  1. Santiago I. Sautua, 2016. "Risk, Ambiguity, And Diversification," Documentos de Trabajo 14588, Universidad del Rosario.
  2. Markus M. Möbius & Muriel Niederle & Paul Niehaus & Tanya S. Rosenblat, 2022. "Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 7793-7817, November.
  3. Fujii Yoichiro & Ogaku Michiko & Okura Mahito & Osaki Yusuke, 2020. "How do Optimistic Individuals Affect Insurance Advertisements?," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-18, July.
  4. Lex Borghans & Bas ter Weel, 2008. "Understanding the Technology of Computer Technology Diffusion: Explaining Computer Adoption Patterns and Implications for the Wage Structure," Journal of Income Distribution, Ad libros publications inc., vol. 17(3-4), pages 37-70, September.
  5. Osili, Una Okonkwo & Paulson, Anna, 2014. "Crises and confidence: Systemic banking crises and depositor behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 646-660.
  6. Gregory DeAngelo & Gary Charness, 2012. "Deterrence, expected cost, uncertainty and voting: Experimental evidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 73-100, February.
  7. Trautmann, Stefan T. & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2013. "Shunning uncertainty: The neglect of learning opportunities," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 44-55.
  8. Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Hügelschäfer, Sabine & Li, Jiahui, 2017. "Framing effects and the reinforcement heuristic," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 32-35.
  9. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Viceisza, Angelino, 2010. "An experiment on the impact of weather shocks and insurance on risky investment," IFPRI discussion papers 974, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  10. James J. Choi & David Laibson & Brigitte C. Madrian & Andrew Metrick, 2009. "Reinforcement Learning and Savings Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2515-2534, December.
  11. Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Umut Keskin & Olivier l’Haridon & Chen Li, 2018. "The Effect of Learning on Ambiguity Attitudes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 2181-2198, May.
  12. Biener, Christian & Landmann, Andreas & Santana, Maria Isabel, 2019. "Contract nonperformance risk and uncertainty in insurance markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 65-83.
  13. Antonio Cabrales & Rosemarie Nagel & Roc Armenter, 2007. "Equilibrium selection through incomplete information in coordination games: an experimental study," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 10(3), pages 221-234, September.
  14. Falk, Armin & Zimmermann, Florian, 2011. "Preferences for Consistency," IZA Discussion Papers 5840, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  15. Anja Achtziger & Carlos Alós-Ferrer, 2014. "Fast or Rational? A Response-Times Study of Bayesian Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 923-938, April.
  16. Shu‐Heng Chen & Shu G. Wang, 2011. "Emergent Complexity In Agent‐Based Computational Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 527-546, July.
  17. Gary Charness & Dan Levin, 2009. "The Origin of the Winner's Curse: A Laboratory Study," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 207-236, February.
  18. Élise PAYZAN LE NESTOUR, 2010. "Bayesian Learning in UnstableSettings: Experimental Evidence Based on the Bandit Problem," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 10-28, Swiss Finance Institute.
  19. Tomas Miklanek, 2017. "Ego-utility and Endogenous Information Acquisition; An Experimental Study," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp582, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  20. van Winden, Frans & Krawczyk, Michal & Hopfensitz, Astrid, 2011. "Investment, resolution of risk, and the role of affect," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 918-939.
  21. Fahr, René & Djawadi, Behnud Mir, 2012. "The impact of risk perception and risk attitudes on corrupt behavior: Evidence from a petty corruption experiment," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62022, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  22. James J. Choi & David Laibson & Brigitte C. Madrian & Andrew Metrick, 2009. "Reinforcement Learning and Savings Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2515-2534, December.
  23. Konstantinos Georgalos, 2016. "Dynamic decision making under ambiguity," Working Papers 112111041, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  24. Grebe, Tim & Ivanova-Stenzel, Radosveta & Kröger, Sabine, 2006. "How eBay Sellers set “Buy-it-now†prices - Bringing The Field Into the Lab," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 181, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
  25. Folli, Dominik & Wolff, Irenaeus, 2022. "Biases in belief reports," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  26. Backhaus, Teresa & Huck, Steffen & Leutgeb, Johannes & Oprea, Ryan, 2023. "Learning through period and physical time," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 21-29.
  27. Diego d’Andria, 2019. "Tax policy and entrepreneurial entry with information asymmetry and learning," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(5), pages 1211-1229, October.
  28. Benjamin Radoc & Robert Sugden & Theodore L. Turocy, 2019. "Correlation neglect and case-based decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 23-49, August.
  29. Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Garagnani, Michele, 2022. "The gradual nature of economic errors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 55-66.
  30. Xinde Ji & Kelly M. Cobourn, 2021. "Weather Fluctuations, Expectation Formation, and Short-Run Behavioral Responses to Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(1), pages 77-119, January.
  31. Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Ritschel, Alexander, 2021. "Multiple behavioral rules in Cournot oligopolies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 250-267.
  32. Hu, Yingyao & Kayaba, Yutaka & Shum, Matthew, 2013. "Nonparametric learning rules from bandit experiments: The eyes have it!," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 215-231.
  33. Haeussler, Carolin & Harhoff, Dietmar & Mueller, Elisabeth, 2014. "How patenting informs VC investors – The case of biotechnology," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(8), pages 1286-1298.
  34. Brice Corgnet & Camille Cornand & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2020. "Negative Tail Events, Emotions & Risk Taking," Working Papers 2016, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  35. Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Hügelschäfer, Sabine, 2012. "Faith in intuition and behavioral biases," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 182-192.
  36. Ben Casner, 2021. "Learning while shopping: an experimental investigation into the effect of learning on consumer search," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 238-273, March.
  37. Gary Charness & Dan Levin, 2005. "When Optimal Choices Feel Wrong: A Laboratory Study of Bayesian Updating, Complexity, and Affect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1300-1309, September.
  38. François Poinas & Julie Rosaz & Béatrice Roussillon, 2012. "Updating beliefs with imperfect signals: Experimental evidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 219-241, June.
  39. Holm, Håkan & Nystedt, Paul, 2008. "Trust in surveys and games - A methodological contribution on the influence of money and location," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 522-542, August.
  40. Suetens, Sigrid & Tyran, Jean-Robert, 2012. "The gambler's fallacy and gender," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 118-124.
  41. Camelia M. Kuhnen, 2015. "Asymmetric Learning from Financial Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2029-2062, October.
  42. Jung, Dominik & Erdfelder, Edgar & Bröder, Arndt & Dorner, Verena, 2019. "Differentiating motivational and cognitive explanations for decision inertia," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 30-44.
  43. Hwang, Joon Ho & Kim, Min-Su, 2015. "Misunderstanding of the binomial distribution, market inefficiency, and learning behavior: Evidence from an exotic sports betting market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(1), pages 333-344.
  44. Ankush Asri & Deepti Bhatia & Urs Fischbacher, 2022. "Caste and Unequal Access to Education: An Experimental Study," TWI Research Paper Series 127, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
  45. Gary Charness & Edi Karni & Dan Levin, 2007. "Individual and group decision making under risk: An experimental study of Bayesian updating and violations of first-order stochastic dominance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 129-148, October.
  46. Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Buckenmaier, Johannes & Garagnani, Michele & Ritschel, Alexander, 2022. "The reinforcement paradox: Monetary incentives and Bayesian updating," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
  47. Edward Cartwright & Amrish Patel, 2010. "Public Goods, Social Norms, and Naïve Beliefs," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 12(2), pages 199-223, April.
  48. Dohmen, Thomas & Falk, Armin & Huffman, David & Marklein, Felix & Sunde, Uwe, 2009. "Biased probability judgment: Evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 903-915, December.
  49. Antoniou, Constantinos & Harrison, Glenn W. & Lau, Morten I. & Read, Daniel, 2017. "Information Characteristics and Errors in Expectations: Experimental Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 737-750, April.
  50. Carlos Alós-Ferrer & Alexander Jaudas & Alexander Ritschel, 2021. "Effortful Bayesian updating: A pupil-dilation study," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 81-102, August.
  51. Carlos Alós-Ferrer & Michele Garagnani, 2022. "Strength of preference and decisions under risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 309-329, June.
  52. Ertac, Seda, 2011. "Does self-relevance affect information processing? Experimental evidence on the response to performance and non-performance feedback," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 532-545.
  53. Dickinson, David L. & Oxoby, Robert J., 2011. "Cognitive dissonance, pessimism, and behavioral spillover effects," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 295-306, June.
  54. Albrecht, Konstanze & von Essen, Emma & Parys, Juliane & Szech, Nora, 2013. "Updating, self-confidence, and discrimination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 144-169.
  55. Bradford L. Barham & Jean-Paul Chavas & Dylan Fitz & Vanessa Ríos-Salas & Laura Schechter, 2015. "Risk, learning, and technology adoption," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(1), pages 11-24, January.
  56. W. Kip Viscusi & Scott DeAngelis, 2018. "Decision irrationalities involving deadly risks," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 225-252, December.
  57. Dickinson, David L. & McElroy, Todd, 2019. "Bayesian versus heuristic-based choice under sleep restriction and suboptimal times of day," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-59.
  58. Tatyana Deryugina, 2013. "How do people update? The effects of local weather fluctuations on beliefs about global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 397-416, May.
  59. Duarte Gonçalves & Jonathan Libgober & Jack Willis, 2021. "Learning versus Unlearning: An Experiment on Retractions," NBER Working Papers 29512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  60. Jordi Brandts & David J. Cooper, 2015. "Centralized vs. Decentralized Management: an Experimental Study," Working Papers 854, Barcelona School of Economics.
  61. von Graevenitz, Georg & Harhoff, Dietmar & Weber, Richard, 2010. "The effects of entrepreneurship education," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 90-112, October.
  62. Asen Ivanov & Dan Levin & James Peck, 2009. "Hindsight, Foresight, and Insight: An Experimental Study of a Small-Market Investment Game with Common and Private Values," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1484-1507, September.
  63. Sautua, Santiago I., 2020. "When diversification clashes with the reinforcement heuristic: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 196-211.
  64. Rudiger, Jesper, 2013. "Using Other People's Opinions: An Experimental Study," MPRA Paper 51787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  65. Jehiel, Philippe & Singh, Juni, 2021. "Multi-state choices with aggregate feedback on unfamiliar alternatives," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-24.
  66. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
  67. Pavlo Blavatskyy & Ganna Pogrebna, 2010. "Endowment effects? “Even” with half a million on the table!," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 173-192, February.
  68. Cheng, Lei & Sun, Zhen, 2021. "The white elephant in IP management market frictions, market connections and escalation of commitment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  69. Kremena Bachmann & Thorsten Hens, 2016. "Is there Swissness in investment decision behavior and investment competence?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 30(3), pages 233-275, August.
  70. Jason Shachat & Anand Srinivasan, 2022. "Informational Price Cascades and Non-Aggregation of Asymmetric Information in Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 388-407, November.
  71. Guillaume R. Fréchette & Alessandro Lizzeri & Jacopo Perego, 2022. "Rules and Commitment in Communication: An Experimental Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2283-2318, September.
  72. Marco Casari & John C. Ham & John H. Kagel, 2007. "Selection Bias, Demographic Effects, and Ability Effects in Common Value Auction Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1278-1304, September.
  73. Balasubramaniam, Vimal & Anagol, Santosh, 2018. "Learning from Noise: Evidence from India’s IPO Lotteries," CEPR Discussion Papers 13314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  74. Charness, Gary & Gneezy, Uri & Rasocha, Vlastimil, 2021. "Experimental methods: Eliciting beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 234-256.
  75. Bi, Sharon & Buontempo, Jenny & DiSalvo, Richard W., 2022. "The effects of accelerated mathematics on self-efficacy and growth mindset," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  76. Paul M. Lohmann & Andreas Kontoleon, 2023. "Do Flood and Heatwave Experiences Shape Climate Opinion? Causal Evidence from Flooding and Heatwaves in England and Wales," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(1), pages 263-304, October.
  77. Johanna M.M. Goertz & Kirill Chernomaz, 2019. "Voting in Three-Alternative Committees: An Experiment," Games, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, May.
  78. Dominik Bauer & Irenaeus Wolff, 2018. "Biases in Beliefs: Experimental Evidence," TWI Research Paper Series 109, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
  79. McLeish, Kendra N & Oxoby, Robert J, 2006. "Measuring Impatience: Elicited Discount Rates and the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale," MPRA Paper 1524, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  80. Dohmen, T.J. & Falk, A. & Huffman, D. & Marklein, F. & Sunde, U., 2009. "The non-use of Bayes rule: representative evidence on bounded rationality," ROA Research Memorandum 001, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
  81. Brice Corgnet & Camille Cornand & Nobuyuki Hanaki, 2020. "Tail events, emotions and risk taking," Working Papers halshs-02613344, HAL.
  82. Bauer, Dominik & Wolff, Irenaeus, 2019. "Biases in Beliefs," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203601, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  83. Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Umut Keskin & Olivier L'Haridon & Author-Name: Chen Li, 2013. "Learning under ambiguity: An experiment using initial public offerings on a stock market," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 201331, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
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  85. Amrish Patel & Edward Cartwright, 2009. "Social Norms and Naive Beliefs," Studies in Economics 0906, School of Economics, University of Kent.
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  87. Isabelle Brocas & Juan Carrillo & Thomas Palfrey, 2012. "Information gatekeepers: theory and experimental evidence," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 51(3), pages 649-676, November.
  88. Peiran Jiao, 2015. "Losing from Naive Reinforcement Learning: A Survival Analysis of Individual Repurchase Decisions," Economics Series Working Papers 765, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  89. Guillaume R. Fréchette & Alessandro Lizzeri & Jacopo Perego, 2019. "Rules and Commitment in Communication: an Experimental Analysis," NBER Working Papers 26404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  90. Gary Charness & Matthias Sutter, 2012. "Groups Make Better Self-Interested Decisions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 157-176, Summer.
  91. Oyarzun, Carlos & Sanjurjo, Adam & Nguyen, Hien, 2017. "Response functions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-31.
  92. Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Ritschel, Alexander, 2018. "The reinforcement heuristic in normal form games," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 224-234.
  93. Song, Reo & Jang, Sungha & Wang, Yingdi & Hanssens, Dominique M. & Suh, Jaebeom, 2021. "Reinforcement learning and risk preference in equity linked notes markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 224-246.
  94. Seung Kyum Kim & James K. Hammitt, 2022. "Hurricane risk perceptions and housing market responses: the pricing effects of risk-perception factors and hurricane characteristics," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 3743-3761, December.
  95. Kuhnen, Camelia M. & Knutson, Brian, 2011. "The Influence of Affect on Beliefs, Preferences, and Financial Decisions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 605-626, June.
  96. Chiang, Yao-Min & Hirshleifer, David & Qian, Yiming & Sherman, Ann, 2009. "Learning to Fail? Evidence from Frequent IPO Investors," MPRA Paper 16854, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2009.
  97. McFadden, Brandon R. & Lusk, Jayson L., 2015. "Cognitive biases in the assimilation of scientific information on global warming and genetically modified food," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 35-43.
  98. Ruth Hill & Angelino Viceisza, 2012. "A field experiment on the impact of weather shocks and insurance on risky investment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 15(2), pages 341-371, June.
  99. Peiran Jiao, 2015. "The Double-Channeled Effects of Experience on Individual Investment Decisions: Experimental Evidence," Economics Series Working Papers 766, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  100. Li, Jing & Zhang, Xiao, 2022. "Do people provide good advice?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 44-64.
  101. Thomas Kourouxous & Thomas Bauer, 2019. "Violations of dominance in decision-making," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 12(1), pages 209-239, April.
  102. Shuhei Kurizaki, 2016. "Signaling and perception in international crises: Two approaches," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 28(4), pages 625-654, October.
  103. So, Tony & Brown, Paul & Chaudhuri, Ananish & Ryvkin, Dmitry & Cameron, Linda, 2017. "Piece-rates and tournaments: Implications for learning in a cognitively challenging task," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 11-23.
  104. Onur Sapci, 2021. "The impact of environmental economics class on college students` future temperature expectations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1887-1897.
  105. Timo Henckel & Gordon Menzies & Peter Moffat & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2017. "Sticky Belief Adjustment: A Double Hurdle Model and Experimental Evidence," Working Paper Series 40, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  106. Shu-Heng Chan & Shu G. Wang, 2010. "Emergent Complexity in Agent-Based Computational Economics," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1017, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
  107. Anja Achtziger & Carlos Alós-Ferrer & Alexander Ritschel, 2020. "Cognitive load in economic decisions," ECON - Working Papers 354, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
  108. Alison Andrew & Abi Adams-Prassl, 2022. "Revealed beliefs and the marriage market return to education," IFS Working Papers W22/48, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  109. Nadia A. Streletskaya & Samuel D. Bell & Maik Kecinski & Tongzhe Li & Simanti Banerjee & Leah H. Palm‐Forster & David Pannell, 2020. "Agricultural Adoption and Behavioral Economics: Bridging the Gap," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(1), pages 54-66, March.
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