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Learning about Predictability: The Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Dynamic Asset Allocation

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Cited by:

  1. Kumar, Praveen, 2006. "Learning about investment risk: The effects of structural uncertainty on dynamic investment and consumption," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 205-229, June.
  2. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets Are Cointegrated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2123-2167, October.
  3. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
  4. Li, Yongwu & Qiao, Han & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Ling, 2015. "Time-consistent investment strategy under partial information," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 187-197.
  5. repec:wsi:wschap:9789813100091_0003 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Lundtofte, Frederik, 2008. "Expected life-time utility and hedging demands in a partially observable economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1072-1096, August.
  7. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2012. "Return predictability and intertemporal asset allocation: Evidence from a bias-adjusted VAR model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 241-253.
  8. Branger, Nicole & Larsen, Linda Sandris & Munk, Claus, 2013. "Robust portfolio choice with ambiguity and learning about return predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1397-1411.
  9. Du Du & Heng-fu Zou, 2008. "Intertemporal Portfolio Choice under Multiple Types of Event Risks," CEMA Working Papers 332, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  10. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
  11. Leirvik, Thomas, 2014. "The bond–stock mix under time-varying interest rates and predictable stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 231-237.
  12. Wu, Feng & Guan, Zhengfei & Yu, Fan & Myers, Robert J., 2013. "The spillover effects of biofuel policy on participation in the conservation reserve program," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1755-1770.
  13. Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: evidence on the economic value of predictability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 325-348, July.
  14. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  15. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan & Valkanov, Rossen, 2014. "Forecasting stock returns under economic constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 517-553.
  16. Shibata, Takashi, 2008. "The impacts of uncertainties in a real options model under incomplete information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(3), pages 1368-1379, June.
  17. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2003. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 639-654, May.
  18. repec:spr:compst:v:71:y:2010:i:2:p:371-399 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Zhu, Yingzi & Zhou, Guofu, 2009. "Technical analysis: An asset allocation perspective on the use of moving averages," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 519-544, June.
  20. Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2009. "Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 162-178, February.
  21. Dirk Nitzsche & Keith Cuthbertson & Niall O'Sullivan, 2005. "Mutual Fund Performance: Skill Or Luck?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 4, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  22. Wang, Neng, 2009. "Optimal consumption and asset allocation with unknown income growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 524-534, May.
  23. Ferstl, Robert & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2011. "Asset-liability management under time-varying investment opportunities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 182-192, January.
  24. Michele Longo & Alessandra Mainini, 2017. "Welfare effects of information and rationality in portfolio decisions under parameter uncertainty," Papers 1709.04387, arXiv.org.
  25. Michele Longo & Alessandra Mainini, 2016. "Learning And Portfolio Decisions For Crra Investors," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(03), pages 1-21, May.
  26. João Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S," Working Papers w201119, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  27. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Size and Value Anomalies under Regime Shifts," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-48, Winter.
  28. Agarwal, Vikas & Arisoy, Y. Eser & Naik, Narayan Y., 2017. "Volatility of aggregate volatility and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 491-510.
  29. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2005. "The economic implications of corporate financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 3-73, December.
  30. Ghysels, Eric & Pereira, João Pedro, 2008. "Liquidity and conditional portfolio choice: A nonparametric investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 679-699, September.
  31. Campbell, John Y. & Chan, Yeung Lewis & Viceira, Luis M., 2003. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-80, January.
  32. David Rey, 2005. "Market Timing And Model Uncertainty: An Exploratory Study For The Swiss Stock Market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(3), pages 239-260, October.
  33. Jakub W. Jurek & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 29-74.
  34. Klos, Alexander & Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2002. "Über kurz oder lang - Welche Rolle spielt der Anlagehorizont bei Investitionsentscheidungen?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 02-49, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  35. Hui Chen & Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, 2014. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Ambiguous Return Predictability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 799-823, October.
  36. Tomas Björk & Mark Davis & Camilla Landén, 2010. "Optimal investment under partial information," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 71(2), pages 371-399, April.
  37. Juhani T. Linnainmaa, 2011. "Why Do (Some) Households Trade So Much?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(5), pages 1630-1666.
  38. Li, Lingxiang, 2016. "New findings on repurchase anomaly — The first-month effect," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 331-349.
  39. Wang, Honglin & Yu, Fan & Reardon, Thomas & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2013. "Social learning and parameter uncertainty in irreversible investments: Evidence from greenhouse adoption in northern China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 104-120.
  40. Shie Mannor & Duncan Simester & Peng Sun & John N. Tsitsiklis, 2007. "Bias and Variance Approximation in Value Function Estimates," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(2), pages 308-322, February.
  41. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Common determinants of bond and stock market liquidity: the impact of financial crises, monetary policy, and mutual fund flows," Staff Reports 141, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  42. Ji Jung Im & Hyun Soo Lim & Sung sub Choi & Denis Nikitin, 2007. "Portfolio Selection under Parameter Uncertainty using a Predictive Distribution," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(2), pages 305-312, November.
  43. Vincent Glode & Burton Hollifield & Marcin Kacperczyk & Shimon Kogan, 2016. "Is Investor Rationality Time Varying? Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Behavioral Finance WHERE DO INVESTORS' BIASES COME FROM?, chapter 3, pages 67-113 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  44. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 361-381, November.
  45. Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez, 2013. "A comparison of numerical methods for the solution of continuous-time DSGE models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-39, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  46. Ando, Tomohiro, 2009. "Bayesian portfolio selection using a multifactor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 550-566, July.
  47. Tae-Hwy Lee & Yong Bao & Burak Saltoğlu, 2007. "Comparing density forecast models Previous versions of this paper have been circulated with the title, 'A Test for Density Forecast Comparison with Applications to Risk Management' since October 2003;," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 203-225.
  48. Gatzer, Sebastian & Hoang, Daniel & Ruckes, Martin, 2014. "Internal capital markets and diversified firms: Theory and practice," Working Paper Series in Economics 64, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Business Engineering.
  49. Escobar, Marcos & Ferrando, Sebastian & Rubtsov, Alexey, 2016. "Portfolio choice with stochastic interest rates and learning about stock return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 347-370.
  50. repec:wsi:ijtafx:v:20:y:2017:i:05:n:s0219024917500297 is not listed on IDEAS
  51. Maenhout, Pascal J., 2006. "Robust portfolio rules and detection-error probabilities for a mean-reverting risk premium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 136-163, May.
  52. Wolfram Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Michael Stamos, 2006. "Life-Cycle Asset Allocation with Annuity Markets: Is Longevity Insurance a Good Deal?," Working Papers wp146, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  53. João Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S," Working Papers w201119, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  54. Leonard MacLean & Yonggan Zhao & William Ziemba, 2013. "Currency returns, market regimes and behavioral biases," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 249-269, May.
  55. Brennan, Michael J & Xia, Yihong, 2001. "Assessing Asset Pricing Anomalies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 905-942.
  56. Andrea M. Buffa & Suleyman Basak, 2016. "A Theory of Operational Risk," 2016 Meeting Papers 352, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  57. Dai, R., 2010. "Essays on pension finance and dynamic asset allocation," Other publications TiSEM 72fdbf1a-5a77-410d-bb4e-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  58. Myroslav Pidkuyko, 2016. "When the Going Gets Tough: Durable Consumption and the Equity Premium," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 225, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  59. Giordano Pola & Gianni Pola, 2009. "A stochastic reachability approach to portfolio construction in finance industry," Papers 0907.3301, arXiv.org.
  60. Consiglio, Andrea & Russino, Annalisa, 2007. "How does learning affect market liquidity? A simulation analysis of a double-auction financial market with portfolio traders," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1910-1937, June.
  61. repec:oup:rasset:v:1:y:2011:i:1:p:1-34. is not listed on IDEAS
  62. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Juan Carlos Rodríguez & Alessandro Sbuelz, 2009. "Momentum and Mean Reversion in Strategic Asset Allocation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(7), pages 1199-1213, July.
  63. Lim, Andrew E.B. & Watewai, Thaisiri, 2012. "Optimal investment and consumption when regime transitions cause price shocks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 551-566.
  64. Michele Longo & Alessandra Mainini, 2015. "Learning and Portfolio Decisions for HARA Investors," Papers 1502.02968, arXiv.org.
  65. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2005. "Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle in the Presence of 'Trickle Down' Labor Income," NBER Working Papers 11247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  66. Alain Bensoussan & Jussi Keppo & Suresh P. Sethi, 2009. "Optimal Consumption And Portfolio Decisions With Partially Observed Real Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 215-236.
  67. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Return Predictability and the Implied Intertemporal Hedging Demands for Stocks and Bonds: International Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 329, Society for Computational Economics.
  68. Gomes, Francisco J., 2007. "Exploiting short-run predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1427-1440, May.
  69. Jarraya, Bilel & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2013. "A Theoretical Assessment on Optimal Asset Allocations in Insurance Industry," MPRA Paper 53534, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
  70. Murray Carlson & David A. Chapman & Ron Kaniel & Hong Yan, 2015. "Asset Return Predictability in a Heterogeneous Agent Equilibrium Model," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-45.
  71. Kim, Hugh Hoikwang & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2016. "Time is money: Rational life cycle inertia and the delegation of investment management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 427-447.
  72. Frederik Lundtofte, 2009. "Can An 'Estimation Factor' Help Explain Cross-Sectional Returns?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5-6), pages 705-724.
  73. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
  74. Roy P. P. M. Hoevenaars & Roderick D. J. Molenaar & Peter C. Schotman & Tom B. M. Steenkamp, 2014. "Strategic Asset Allocation For Long‐Term Investors: Parameter Uncertainty And Prior Information," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 353-376, April.
  75. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2008. "Life-cycle asset allocation with annuity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3590-3612, November.
  76. Haijun Wang & L. Steven Hou, 2015. "Robust Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Habit Formation, the Spirit of Capitalism and Recursive Utility," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 16(2), pages 393-416, November.
  77. Anh Ngoc Lai & Constantin Mellios, 2016. "Valuation of commodity derivatives with an unobservable convenience yield," Post-Print halshs-01183166, HAL.
  78. Jin-Ray Lu & Chih-Ming Chan & Wen-Shen Li, 2011. "Portfolio Selections with Innate Learning Ability," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 10(3), pages 201-217, December.
  79. José Carlos Ramirez Sánchez, 2004. "Usos y limitaciones de los procesos estocásticos en el tratamiento de distribuciones de rendimientos con colas gordas," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 19(1), pages 51-76, June.
  80. Michael Johannes & Arthur Korteweg & Nicholas Polson, 2014. "Sequential Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 611-644, April.
  81. Penaranda, Francisco, 2007. "Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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  83. David Stefanovits & Urs Schubiger & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2014. "Model Risk in Portfolio Optimization," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(3), pages 1-34, August.
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