IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v37y2013i9p1755-1770.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The spillover effects of biofuel policy on participation in the conservation reserve program

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Feng
  • Guan, Zhengfei
  • Yu, Fan
  • Myers, Robert J.

Abstract

This paper studies the spillover effects of rising biofuel production on participation in the Conservation Reserve Program. Landowner participation decisions are modeled using a real options framework. We develop a land use decision model that captures biofuel-driven structural changes in market demand and derive threshold conditions that trigger participation in the program. We then quantify the impacts of biofuel production on participation at both the national and state levels using Monte Carlo simulations. The model is also used to analyze how changes in the persistence of the biofuel production boom and in the volatility of farming returns affect conservation participation decisions. Policy implications of the results are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Feng & Guan, Zhengfei & Yu, Fan & Myers, Robert J., 2013. "The spillover effects of biofuel policy on participation in the conservation reserve program," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1755-1770.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:9:p:1755-1770
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2013.03.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188913000687
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2013.03.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz, 2008. "Removing Distortions in the U.S. Ethanol Market: What Does It Imply for the United States and Brazil?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 918-932.
    2. David Zilberman & Gal Hochman & Deepak Rajagopal & Steve Sexton & Govinda Timilsina, 2013. "The Impact of Biofuels on Commodity Food Prices: Assessment of Findings," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 275-281.
    3. Wu, JunJie & Zilberman, David & Babcock, Bruce A., 2001. "Environmental and Distributional Impacts of Conservation Targeting Strategies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 333-350, May.
    4. Young, C. Edwin & Osborn, C. Tim, 1990. "The Conservation Reserve Program: An Economic Assessment," Agricultural Economic Reports 308084, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    6. Isik, Murat & Yang, Wanhong, 2004. "An Analysis of the Effects of Uncertainty and Irreversibility on Farmer Participation in the Conservation Reserve Program," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-18, August.
    7. JunJie Wu, 2000. "Slippage Effects of the Conservation Reserve Program," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 979-992.
    8. JunJie Wu & Haixia Lin, 2010. "The Effect of the Conservation Reserve Program on Land Values," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-21.
    9. Capozza, Dennis & Li, Yuming, 1994. "The Intensity and Timing of Investment: The Case of Land," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 889-904, September.
    10. Ruben N. Lubowski & Andrew J. Plantinga & Robert N. Stavins, 2008. "What Drives Land-Use Change in the United States? A National Analysis of Landowner Decisions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(4), pages 529-550.
    11. Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto Fabiosa & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Fengxia Dong & Chad E. Hart, 2008. "Bottlenecks, Drought, and Oil Price Spikes: Impact on U.S. Ethanol and Agricultural Sectors," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 604-622.
    12. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    13. Gennotte, Gerard, 1986. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 733-746, July.
    14. Insley, Margaret, 2002. "A Real Options Approach to the Valuation of a Forestry Investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 471-492, November.
    15. Hung-Hao Chang & Richard N. Boisvert, 2009. "Distinguishing between Whole-Farm vs. Partial-Farm Participation in the Conservation Reserve Program," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(1), pages 144-161.
    16. Schatzki, Todd, 2003. "Options, uncertainty and sunk costs:: an empirical analysis of land use change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 86-105, July.
    17. Yihong Xia, 2001. "Learning about Predictability: The Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Dynamic Asset Allocation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 205-246, February.
    18. Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la & Walsh, Marie E. & Shapouri, Hosein & Slinsky, Stephen P., 2003. "The Economic Impacts of Bioenergy Crop Production on U.S. Crop Production," Agricultural Economic Reports 33997, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    19. Parks P. J. & Kramer R. A., 1995. "A Policy Simulation of the Wetlands Reserve Program," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 223-240, March.
    20. Michael D. Boehlje & Brent A. Gloy & Jason R. Henderson, 2013. "U.S. Farm Prosperity: The New Normal or Reversion to the Mean," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 310-317.
    21. Janis M. Carey & David Zilberman, 2002. "A Model of Investment under Uncertainty: Modern Irrigation Technology and Emerging Markets in Water," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 171-183.
    22. Margaret Insley & Kimberly Rollins, 2005. "On Solving the Multirotational Timber Harvesting Problem with Stochastic Prices: A Linear Complementarity Formulation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(3), pages 735-755.
    23. M. J. Brennan, 1998. "The Role of Learning in Dynamic Portfolio Decisions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 1(3), pages 295-306.
    24. Jordan F. Suter & Gregory L. Poe & Nelson L. Bills, 2008. "Do Landowners Respond to Land Retirement Incentives? Evidence from the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(1), pages 17-30.
    25. Elobeid, Amani & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce & Hart, Chad E., 2007. "The Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors with Implications for Biotech Crops," ISU General Staff Papers 200701010800001003, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David A. Fleming, 2014. "Slippage effects of land-based policies: Evaluating the Conservation Reserve Program using satellite imagery," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93, pages 167-178, November.
    2. Clark Lundberg & Ryan Abman, 2022. "Maize price volatility and deforestation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(2), pages 693-716, March.
    3. Di Corato, Luca & Hess, Sebastian, 2013. "Farmland Investments in Africa: What’s the Deal?," Working Paper Series 2013:10, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department Economics.
    4. Luca Di Corato, 2018. "Rural land development under hyperbolic discounting: a real option approach," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 167-182, July.
    5. Di Corato, Luca & Brady, Mark V., 2019. "Passive farming and land development: A real options approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 32-46.
    6. Luca Di Corato & Dimitrios Zormpas, 2022. "Investment in farming under uncertainty and decoupled support: a real options approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(4), pages 876-909.
    7. Mykel R. Taylor & Nathan P. Hendricks & Gabriel S. Sampson & Dillon Garr, 2021. "The Opportunity Cost of the Conservation Reserve Program: A Kansas Land Example," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 849-865, June.
    8. Ruben N. Lubowski & Andrew J. Plantinga & Robert N. Stavins, 2008. "What Drives Land-Use Change in the United States? A National Analysis of Landowner Decisions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(4), pages 529-550.
    9. Shibata, Takashi, 2008. "The impacts of uncertainties in a real options model under incomplete information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(3), pages 1368-1379, June.
    10. Wang, Honglin & Yu, Fan & Reardon, Thomas & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2013. "Social learning and parameter uncertainty in irreversible investments: Evidence from greenhouse adoption in northern China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 104-120.
    11. Feng Song & Jinhua Zhao & Scott M. Swinton, 2011. "Switching to Perennial Energy Crops Under Uncertainty and Costly Reversibility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(3), pages 764-779.
    12. Corato, Luca Di & Hess, Sebastian, 2013. "A Dynamic Stochastic Programming Framework for Modeling Large Scale Land Deals in Developing Countries," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150190, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Jacinto F. Fabiosa & John C. Beghin & Fengxia Dong & JAmani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz & Tun-Hsiang Yu, 2010. "Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(4), pages 687-706.
    14. Song, Dandan & Wang, Huamao & Yang, Zhaojun, 2014. "Learning, pricing, timing and hedging of the option to invest for perpetual cash flows with idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-11.
    15. Assogba, Noel Perceval & Zhang, Daowei, 2022. "The conservation reserve program and timber prices in the southern United States," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    16. Michele Longo & Alessandra Mainini, 2015. "Learning and Portfolio Decisions for HARA Investors," Papers 1502.02968, arXiv.org.
    17. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
    18. Jeffrey Stokes, 2012. "The value of the option to preserve farm real estate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 162-175, January.
    19. Hui Chen & Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, 2014. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Ambiguous Return Predictability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 799-823, October.
    20. Daniel Andrei & Bruce Carlin & Michael Hasler, 2019. "Asset Pricing with Disagreement and Uncertainty About the Length of Business Cycles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2900-2923, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spillover; Biofuel production; Conservation reserve; Risk and uncertainty; Real options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:9:p:1755-1770. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.