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A Dynamic Stochastic Programming Framework for Modeling Large Scale Land Deals in Developing Countries

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  • Corato, Luca Di
  • Hess, Sebastian

Abstract

The attractiveness of agricultural land available in developing countries has markedly increased in the last few years. Driven by rising and highly volatile prices for agricul- tural commodities, large land acquisitions have been undertaken by foreign investors. We formalize the discussion surrounding such large scale land deals through a dynamic stochastic programming model. Within this framework, we first determine the value of a land development project under uncertainty about prices for agricultural commodi- ties, political risk and irreversible capital investment. Second, given an exogenously set corporate tax rate, we determine, in both a cooperative and a non-cooperative set- ting, the optimal land rental payment. We show that 1) the optimal policy scheme is equivalent to a risk-sharing contract, 2) trading o¤ rental payment with tax revenue is detrimental for both total project value and domestic benefits and 3) taxation has a neutral impact on long-run the land development pace. We complete our study by illustrating our results through an empirical application based on observed individual land deals from Ethiopia and simulations for a specific crop in a selected region that has recently been targeted by foreign investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Corato, Luca Di & Hess, Sebastian, 2013. "A Dynamic Stochastic Programming Framework for Modeling Large Scale Land Deals in Developing Countries," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150190, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:150190
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign direct investment; land leasing; real options; nash bargaining; International Development; Land Economics/Use; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C61; D81; F23; Q24; Q58;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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