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Is Investor Rationality Time Varying? Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry

In: Behavioral Finance WHERE DO INVESTORS' BIASES COME FROM?

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent Glode
  • Burton Hollifield
  • Marcin Kacperczyk
  • Shimon Kogan

Abstract

We provide novel evidence that mutual fund returns are predictable after periods of high market returns but not after periods of lowmarket returns. The asymmetric conditional predictability in relative performance cannot be fully explained by time-varying differences in transaction costs, in style exposures, or in survival probabilities of funds. Performance predictability is more pronounced for funds catering to retail investors than for funds catering to institutional investors, suggesting that unsophisticated investors make systematic mistakes in their capital allocation decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Glode & Burton Hollifield & Marcin Kacperczyk & Shimon Kogan, 2016. "Is Investor Rationality Time Varying? Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Itzhak Venezia (ed.), Behavioral Finance WHERE DO INVESTORS' BIASES COME FROM?, chapter 3, pages 67-113, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789813100091_0003
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    2. Narulita, Wista A. & Parwada, Jerry T., 2012. "Evolution of a mutual fund market: Empirical analysis of simultaneous growth and decline by fund category in Indonesia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1217-1236.
    3. Glode, Vincent, 2011. "Why mutual funds "underperform"," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 546-559, March.
    4. Salganik, G., 2010. "Essays on investment flows of hedge fund and mutual fund investors," Other publications TiSEM e5953fbe-064e-4647-9353-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Sebastian Müller & Martin Weber, 2014. "Evaluating the Rating of Stiftung Warentest: How Good Are Mutual Fund Ratings and Can They Be Improved?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(2), pages 207-235, March.
    6. Stafylas, Dimitrios & Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Tolikas, Konstantinos, 2023. "Hedge fund performance persistence under different business cycles and stock market regimes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Badrinath, S.G. & Gubellini, S., 2011. "On the characteristics and performance of long-short, market-neutral and bear mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1762-1776, July.
    8. Zhou, Haoyong & He, Fan & Wang, Yangbo, 2017. "Did family firms perform better during the financial crisis? New insights from the S&P 500 firms," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 88-103.

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    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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