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Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 21-44.
  2. Steinar Holden, 2012. "Implications of insights from behavioral economics for macroeconomic models," Working Paper 2012/12, Norges Bank.
  3. Xing, Dun-Zhong & Li, Hai-Feng & Li, Jiang-Cheng & Long, Chao, 2021. "Forecasting price of financial market crash via a new nonlinear potential GARCH model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 566(C).
  4. Michele Berardi, 2018. "Information aggregation and learning in a dynamic asset pricing model," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 241, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  5. Milani, Fabio, 2017. "Learning about the interdependence between the macroeconomy and the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 223-242.
  6. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2013. "Perpetual learning and stock return predictability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 19-22.
  7. Georges, Christophre, 2015. "Risk preference and stability under learning," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 105-108.
  8. Aitken, Michael & Cumming, Douglas & Zhan, Feng, 2015. "High frequency trading and end-of-day price dislocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 330-349.
  9. Kuang, Pei, 2014. "A model of housing and credit cycles with imperfect market knowledge," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 419-437.
  10. Lof, Matthijs, 2013. "Essays on Expectations and the Econometrics of Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 59064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Driscoll, John C. & Holden, Steinar, 2014. "Behavioral economics and macroeconomic models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 133-147.
  12. Andrea Giusto, 2015. "Approximate aggregation revisited: higher moments do matter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(14), pages 1138-1143, September.
  13. Pei Kuang, 2013. "Imperfect Knowledge About Asset Prices and Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 13-02r, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  14. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2011. "Recurrent Bubbles," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 27-62, March.
  15. Nakov, Anton & Nuño, Galo, 2015. "Learning from experience in the stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 224-239.
  16. Branch, William A. & Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2016. "Financial frictions, the housing market, and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 101-135.
  17. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
  18. Taro Ikeda, 2016. "Relume: A fractal analysis for the US stock market," Discussion Papers 1637, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  19. Gaus, Eric & Sinha, Arunima, 2017. "Characterizing investor expectations for assets with varying risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 990-999.
  20. George W. Evans, 2011. "Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 61-71, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Johannes Beutel, 2017. "Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2352-2408, August.
  22. Hommes, Cars H., 2014. "Behaviorally Rational Expectations and Almost Self-Fulfilling Equilibria," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 1(1-2), pages 75-97, January.
  23. Kuang, Pei & Yao, Yao, 2017. "Are rational explosive solutions learnable?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 62-66.
  24. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2016. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 33-82, February.
  25. Pignataro, Giuseppe & Raggi, Davide & Pancotto, Francesca, 2024. "On the role of fundamentals, private signals, and beauty contests to predict exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 687-705.
  26. Thorsten Lehnert, 2020. "Fear and stock price bubbles," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, May.
  27. Hommes, Cars & Zhu, Mei, 2014. "Behavioral learning equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 778-814.
  28. Evans, George W. & Hommes, Cars & McGough, Bruce & Salle, Isabelle, 2022. "Are long-horizon expectations (de-)stabilizing? Theory and experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 44-63.
  29. Ortiz, Marco, 2013. "Learning Through the Yield Curve," Working Papers 2013-018, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  30. Andrew Filardo & Paul Hubert & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2019. "The reaction function channel of monetary policy and the financial cycle," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403260, HAL.
  31. Zhang, Tongbin, 2021. "Stock prices and the risk-free rate: An internal rationality approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
  32. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes, 2012. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 35-64, November.
  33. Michele Berardi, 2021. "Learning from prices: information aggregation and accumulation in an asset market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 45-77, March.
  34. Enders, Zeno & Hakenes, Hendrik Hakenes, 2014. "On the Existence and Prevention of Speculative Bubbles," Working Papers 0567, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  35. Airaudo, Marco & Cardani, Roberta & Lansing, Kevin J., 2013. "Monetary policy and asset prices with belief-driven fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1453-1478.
  36. Georges, Christophre & Pereira, Javier, 2021. "Market stability with machine learning agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  37. Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2015. "Speculative behaviour and oil price predictability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 128-136.
  38. Michele Berardi, 2020. "Learning from Prices: Information Aggregation and Accumulation in an Asset Price Model," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2009, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  39. Berardi, Michele, 2021. "Uncertainty, sentiments and time-varying risk premia," MPRA Paper 106922, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Luisa Corrado & Tobias Schuler, 2018. "Financial Cycles, Credit Bubbles and Stabilization Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7422, CESifo.
  41. LeBaron, Blake, 2012. "Heterogeneous gain learning and the dynamics of asset prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 424-445.
  42. Uribe, Jorge & Fernández, Julián, 2014. "Burbujas financieras y comportamiento reciente de los mercados de acciones en América Latina," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 81, pages 57-90, April.
  43. Itamar Caspi & Nico Katzke & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Date stamping historical oil price bubbles: 1876 - 2014," Working Papers 20/2014, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  44. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2018. "Perpetual learning and apparent long memory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 343-365.
  45. Shin, Michael, 2021. "Subjective expectations, experiences, and stock market participation: Evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 672-689.
  46. Michele Berardi, 2015. "Prices, fundamental values and learning," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 214, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  47. Branch, William A., 2016. "Imperfect knowledge, liquidity and bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-42.
  48. Namun Cho & Tae-Seok Jang, 2019. "Asset Market Volatility and New Keynesian Macroeconomics: A Game-Theoretic Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 245-266, June.
  49. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2013. "Bubbles, crashes and risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 254-258.
  50. Matthijs Lof, 2015. "Rational Speculators, Contrarians, and Excess Volatility," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(8), pages 1889-1901, August.
  51. Branch, William & McGough, Bruce, 2016. "Heterogeneous beliefs and trading inefficiencies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 786-818.
  52. Giusto, Andrea, 2014. "Adaptive learning and distributional dynamics in an incomplete markets model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 317-333.
  53. Michele Berardi, 2016. "Endogenous time-varying risk aversion and asset returns," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 581-601, July.
  54. Andrea Giusto, 2015. "Learning to Agree: A New Perspective on Price Drift," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 276-282.
  55. Gáti, Laura, 2023. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations—An endogenous gain learning model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 37-47.
  56. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2013. "Bubbles, crashes and risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 254-258.
  57. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
  58. Elias, Christopher J., 2016. "Asset pricing with expectation shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 68-82.
  59. Kuang, Pei & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Long-run growth uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 67-80.
  60. Caspi, Itamar & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Date stamping historical periods of oil price explosivity: 1876–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 582-587.
  61. Yanhao (Max) Wei & Anthony Dukes, 2021. "Cryptocurrency Adoption with Speculative Price Bubbles," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(2), pages 241-260, March.
  62. Herrera Luis & Vázquez Jesús, 2023. "Interpreting Structural Shocks and Assessing Their Historical Importance," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 375-425, January.
  63. Michele Berardi, 2016. "Herding through learning in an asset pricing model," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 223, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  64. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2017. "Unstable Inflation Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 767-806, June.
  65. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations in asset pricing: Empirical evidence from the S&P500," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 1-16.
  66. Ikeda, Taro, 2014. "Asymmetric preferences in real-time learning and the Taylor rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 487-489.
  67. Kieran McQuinn & Teresa Monteiro & Conor O’Toole, 2021. "House Price Expectations, Labour Market Developments and the House Price to Rent Ratio: A User Cost of Capital Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 25-47, January.
  68. Pei Kuang & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Potential Output Pessimism and Austerity in the European Union," Discussion Papers 22-08, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  69. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-586 is not listed on IDEAS
  70. Broer, Tobias & Kero, Afroditi, 2011. "Great Moderation or Great Mistake: Can rising confidence in low macro-risk explain the boom in asset prices?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8700, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  71. Taro Ikeda, 2017. "Asymmetric Preferences and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1831-1838, December.
  72. Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti & Christopher L. Gilbert & J. Roderick McCrorie, 2015. "Testing for Mild Explosivity and Bubbles in LME Non-Ferrous Metals Prices," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 763-782, September.
  73. Uribe Gil, Jorge Mario, 2013. "Testing for multiple bubbles with daily data," Documentos de Trabajo 11028, Universidad del Valle, CIDSE.
  74. Juan Carlos Castro Fernández & Juan Carlos Castro Fernández, 2022. "Big Recessions and Slow Recoveries," Documentos de Trabajo UEC 20128, Universidad Externado de Colombia.
  75. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/mqe122bu9lprrh0g2eloopgd is not listed on IDEAS
  76. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/mqe122bu9lprrh0g2eloopgd is not listed on IDEAS
  77. Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhang, Wei & Xiong, Xiong & Wang, Xue & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2021. "The double-edged role of social learning: Flash crash and lower total volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 405-420.
  78. repec:kob:wpaper:1637 is not listed on IDEAS
  79. Sudipto Bhattacharya & Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2015. "A Reconsideration of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 931-973, August.
  80. Jonathan Cook, 2017. "Estimating the portion of technical analysts in a market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(41), pages 4127-4137, September.
  81. Moreira, Afonso M. & Martins, Luis F., 2020. "A new mechanism for anticipating price exuberance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 199-221.
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