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Option Value, Policy Uncertainty, and the Foreign Direct Investment Decision

  • Chen, Yu-Fu
  • Funke, Michael

In this paper we analyse the impact of policy uncertainty on foreign direct investment strategies. The paper follows the real options approach, which allows to investigate the value to a firm of waiting to invest and/or disinvest, when payoffs are stochastic due to political uncertainty and investments are partially reversible. Across the board we find that political uncertainty can be very detrimental to FDI decisions.

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File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19206/1/234.pdf
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Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA) in its series HWWA Discussion Papers with number 234.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26373
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  1. Culem, Claudy G., 1988. "The locational determinants of direct investments among industrialized countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 885-904, April.
  2. Nada Mora & Ratna Sahay & Jeronimo Zettelmeyer & Pietro Garibaldi, 2002. "What Moves Capital to Transition Economies?," IMF Working Papers 02/64, International Monetary Fund.
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  4. Brenton, Paul & Di Mauro, Francesca, 1999. "The Potential Magnitude and Impact of FDI flows to CEECs," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 14, pages 59-74.
  5. Cherian, Joseph A. & Perotti, Enrico, 2001. "Option pricing and foreign investment under political risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 359-377, December.
  6. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
  7. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
  8. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
  9. Brenton, Paul & Gros, Daniel, 1997. "Trade Reorientation and Recovery in Transition Economies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 65-76, Summer.
  10. Pindyck, Robert S. & Solimano, Andrés., 1993. "Economic instability and aggregate investment," Working papers 3552-93., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  11. Kevin Hassett & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 1994. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," NBER Working Papers 4780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
  13. Linda S. Goldberg & Charles D. Kolstad, 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 4815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, . "A Unified Model of Investment Under Uncertainty," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 14-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  15. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice C. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, 1995. "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Perotti, Roberto & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," Scholarly Articles 4553018, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  17. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
  18. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2001. "General-Equilibrium Approaches to the Multinational Firm: A Review of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
  21. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
  22. Gregory J. Brock, 1998. "Foreign direct investment in Russia's regions 1993-95. Why so little and where has it gone?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 6(2), pages 349-360, November.
  23. Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1992. "Waiting to Invest: Investment and Uncertainty," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-29, January.
  24. Richard Baldwin, 1988. "Hysteresis In Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," NBER Working Papers 2545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Buckley, Peter J & Casson, Mark, 1981. "The Optimal Timing of a Foreign Direct Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 75-87, March.
  26. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-49, June.
  27. Giuseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1991. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 3865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
  29. Abel, Andrew B. & Eberly, Janice C., 1997. "An exact solution for the investment and value of a firm facing uncertainty, adjustment costs, and irreversibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 831-852, May.
  30. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
  31. Aymo Brunetti & Beatrice Weder, 1998. "Investment and institutional uncertainty: A comparative study of different uncertainty measures," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(3), pages 513-533, September.
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